债券市场的平静没能持续一天,在FOMC会议之后,由于美联储为债券收益率曲线趋于陡峭开了绿灯,美国国债遭到大量抛售。
此次投资者的行动相当迅速,十年期美国国债收益率从1.67%飙升至1.75%,这是自去年1月以来首次达到该水平。
反过来,收益率的上涨有助于看到买盘涌入美元,而股票则大量撤出科技领域。纳斯达克期货在进入北美交易时段前下跌约1.8%。
欧元兑美元从1.1980跌至1.1934,并进一步接近测试其100小时移动平均线1.1930。
英镑/美元从1.4000跌至1.3945后保持稳定,维持在1.3960-70左右的水平。
其他资产方面,黄金下跌,从1750美元一度跌破1720美元关口。对于黄金而言,美国国债遭遇抛售,导致与价格相反的收益率飙升,会进而降低持有无固定收益的黄金的机会成本。
富国银行指出,10年期美国国债收益率可能在“几周后”达到1.75%,到年中突破2%。鲍威尔没有说任何话来压低长期收益率,我们认为,宽容的美联储和庞大的国债供应将继续推动收益率上升。
Tavistock Wealth首席投资官John Leiper表示,美联储缺乏对债券收益率上升的警觉,将其推高。“鲍威尔仍然专注于疲弱的就业市场,无论经济表现如何,这将‘需要一些时间恢复’,并且即便通胀预期达到多年高点,也继续否认通胀风险。”
“他演讲中最有趣的部分是在问答环节,他表示他并不担心最近美国国债收益率的上升。鲍威尔的鸽派越温和,债券收益率就越高,而他的评论也无济于事,无法阻止债券警惕性者将收益率推高。”
“我们维持对10年期美国国债收益率2%的预测。”
继昨天美联储完成挑战后,投资者开始再次测试美联储的决心,债券市场则再次成为一切。
Forexlive评论称,今天飙升的幅度开始吓坏了风险资产,但随着美联储在更长的时间内坚持低利率,除非国债完全投降,否则股市可能不会花太长时间就能稳定下来。
日内英国央行举行了最新的货币政策会议,宣布保持现有利率和购债规模不变。
对于英国经济,英国央行预计,英国1月份GDP下降2.9%。这没有弱于预期,主要是由于公共部门产出的发展,但仍使GDP低于其2019年第四季度水平约10%。近期放松活动限制计划的消息可能令2021年第二季度的消费增长前景比2月份报告中的预期稍强。
在整个英国,新冠感染和住院率显着下降,疫苗接种计划正在迅速进行。已经宣布了放松活动限制的计划,并设想解除限制的速度可能比2月报告中所设想的要快一些。
在此情况下,英国央行货币政策委员会表示债券最初的购买速度可能会维持在当前水平附近,之后可以灵活地放缓购买速度。预计今年春季CPI将迅速回升至2%左右的目标水平。如果通胀前景减弱,货币政策委员会准备采取行动。
英国央行称,美国的财政刺激计划不仅会刺激美国的需求,而且会对包括英国在内的世界各地的需求产生溢出效应。一些中期紧缩措施也已经宣布,比如从2023年4月开始,将公司税的主要税率从19%提高到25%。发达经济体较长期政府债券收益率已迅速升至与疫情爆发前不久类似的水平,这在很大程度上反映了实际收益率的上升。
英国央行声明公布后英镑受到其倾向于鸽派立场的影响小幅下挫,但程度温和。市场整体仍以坚挺的美元和美债收益率为主导。
数据方面,美国3月费城联储制造业新订单指数录得50.9,达到50年以来新高,这预示着美国经济的强劲反弹,风险情绪因此受到适度支撑。
美股开盘上涨,道琼斯指数开盘上涨189.42点,涨幅0.58%,报33015.37点;标普500指数开盘上涨11.41点,涨幅0.29%,报3974.12点;纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨53.63点,涨幅0.40%,报13525.20点。
主要货币走势分析:
欧元:周四欧市盘初,欧元/美元开于1.1947。欧洲时段下行,最低触及1.1909。汇价短期初步支撑位于1.1851,初步阻力位则可看1.2015。
英镑:周四欧市盘初,英镑/美元开于1.3957。欧洲时段走低,最低跌至1.3898。汇价短期初步支撑位于1.3887,初步阻力位则可看1.3929。
日元:周四欧市盘初,美元/日元开于109.21。欧洲时段先抑后扬,目前位于109.13。汇价短期初步支撑位于108.96,初步阻力位则可看109.18。
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