美国国债收益率最近一直在疫情前的高点附近徘徊，投资者们开始押注这种平静持很快就会被打破。
IHS Markit Ltd．的数据显示，规模140亿美元的iShares 20+美国国债ETF（TLT）的空头份额已经攀升至总发行量的约五分之一，为2017年初以来的最高值。该基金今年迄今下跌了13%，2021年初的空头头寸为7%，如今已有所上升。
虽然债券抛售似乎已经趋于稳定，美国30年期国债收益率最近的大部分时间里都在2.4%附近徘徊，但空头激增表明，投资者预计这种平静不会持续太久。
信安环球投资（Principal Global Investors）表示，在市场对经济增长前景重新定价之后，美债收益率已经出现了明显的波动，随着越来越多的经济数据出炉，美债收益率的剧烈波动可能会卷土重来。
信安环球投资的首席策略师西马·沙阿（Seema Shah）表示：
“这段平静期可能不会持续太长。我们预计今年投资者将要不断应对更高的通胀和经济增长。每公布一个强劲的经济或通胀数据，都将再次牵动着投资者的神经，从而推高波动率。”
到目前为止，投资者已从TLT中撤资近26亿美元，这可能是该基金2002年成立以来资金流出最大的一年。经济增长预期上调以及通胀预期攀升，让TLT和规模为400亿美元的投资级企业债ETF（LQD）等长期基金受挫，上周LQD刚录得单日最大资金外流。
衡量美国债券波动性的MOVE指数已从2月底的76回落至约62。理查德·伯恩斯坦顾问公司（Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC）表示，虽然债券市场在强劲的经济数据公布后处于持稳状态，但无论之后的经济数据表现如何，债券市场都会发生波动。
该公司固定收益主管和投资组合经理迈克尔·康托普洛斯（Michael Contopoulos）表示：
“美国国债在很大程度上反映了当前的疫情刺激措施、基建法案和经济复苏。下一阶段需要关注的数据是实际通胀率，而不仅仅是经济复苏的数据。在今年和2022年期间，我们预计会看到更高的波动性以及更高的利率。”
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