
在2020年底展望2021时,大多数机构预测在大规模疫苗接种的推动下,全球防疫节节胜利,全球经济同步复苏。2021一季度已经过去,全球疫情又一次反弹,基本可判断防疫任重道远,全球经济难言同步复苏,各国在疫情防控、疫苗接种、政策制定以及经济复苏方面的差异,是现今研究国际经济形势和资产配置的核心。
中国以外,美国货币财政双宽松,尤其是财政政策极具扩张性,短期内经济可能会一枝独秀。虽然美国的强劲复苏也会拉动别国经济,但美国作为世界经济第一大国和全球储备货币发行国,其过度松弛的财政政策在短中期内会导致全球大宗商品价格快速上涨,美国国债利率快速上升,资金回流美国,因而也会牵累他国,某些新兴市场国家已经被迫加息,各国政策开始分道而行。市场或低估美国和全球通胀的压力,美联储在2021年底或2022年初或许会面临更具挑战性的局面。美国国债利率和美元汇率还有进一步上升的空间;与2013年相似,美国股市,尤其是和疫情后经济复苏相关的板块,表现可能优于新兴市场和其他发达国家,而部分新兴市场国家的利率可能被动上调、汇率贬值、股市受压。中国可从美国的强劲复苏中受益,但也会面临一定压力,总体来讲可独善其身。
全球非同步复苏背后有两组关键因素:一是新冠疫情和疫苗接种,二是货币和财政政策。
新冠疫情方面,全球每日新增病例于2021年1月初在73万左右见顶之后快速回落至2月底的36万附近,但最近几周再次急速回升至50万以上;欧洲大陆、巴西和印度等地的反弹尤其明显,如巴西目前日新增病例已经跃升到了9万至10万左右的新高,印度过去连续三天新增病例在9万以上。与此相反,美国的疫情防控取得明显进展,日新增病例从1月初29万左右的高点急速回落到现今的6万左右。
新增病例走势之间的反差取决于众多因素,但疫苗接种速度应该起到了较为关键的作用。在疫苗接种速度最快的以色列,接种率已达61%,日新增病例已经从年初的8500左右下降到现在的180附近。疫苗接种速度排名第三的英国,接种率已达46%,日新增病例已经从年初的6万左右剧减到现在的2400左右。美国32%的接种率也遥遥领先绝大部分国家,在降低日新增病例方面或许功不可没。而欧元(1.1872, 0.0000, 0.00%)区目前的接种率只有13%,远远落后于美英,其大幅反弹的日新增病例和其滞后的接种率不无关系。即使这样,欧元区的疫苗接种率还是要远高于发展中国家。根据我们的统计,截止到这周一,发展中国家的疫苗接种率只有5.0%,拉美略高,在6.6%,南亚的印度是5.0%,东南亚的人口大国印尼只有3.2%。中国因为在防疫方面极为高效,疫苗接种率和日新增病例并无关系,目前接种率在8.3%,高于绝大部分发展中国家,但显著低于发达国家平均水平。
货币和财政政策方面,美国一骑绝尘。美国世界第一的经济体量固然使得其财政货币政策对全球经济有着很大的影响,但更多的是通过作为全球最主要国际储备和结算货币的美元和作为世界金融中心的华尔街对全球经济施加巨大的影响。
美国2020年财政赤字占GDP的14.6%,为二战以来最高。在经济已经快速复苏的背景之下,拜登政府在推出天量的1.9万亿美元刺激计划之后,紧锣密鼓筹划推出2.25万亿美元的“基建”投资计划,2021年赤字率保守估计要在15.6%以上。
相比而言,欧元区2020年赤字率为9.3%,2021年根据预算,约为6.4%,远低于美国;日本2020年的赤字率略高,为17.3%,但2021年要大幅降低到5.5%。2008年全球金融危机爆发后美国实行扩张性财政政策,赤字率从2008年的3.1%急升到2009年9.8%、2010年的8.7%和2011年的8.4%,但和2020年及2021年的赤字率相比,则是小巫见大巫。
与此同时,美联储吸取其在全球金融危机后的经验教训,多次重申维持现今宽松的货币政策,放宽2%的通胀目标,执行“平均通胀目标”政策,目前每个月1200亿美元的量化宽松不会在短期内退坡。而根据美联储公开市场操作委员会成员的预测,加息要到2024年才开始。因此,美国经济现在面临二战以来前所未有的财政货币双双极度宽松的局面。
2020年由于新冠疫情的突然暴发,各国竭尽全力扩张财政支出来纾困和刺激经济是份内之事,但在经济已经从低谷大幅反弹,经济结构已经做出适度调整来应对疫情的背景之下,美国2021年连续推出天量赤字就显得不可思议了。为什么美国能出台如此反常的政策呢?我想大致有三个因素。
最重要的因素来自美国内政。近年来美国国内贫富差距拉大,阶级和种族矛盾加剧,民众也因宗教信仰和政治理念的分歧而加剧分化,社会很难形成共识。新冠疫情不仅暴露了美国国内的各种问题和矛盾,又因为疫情在美国大选年暴发,对美国大选的方式产生较大影响,使得绝大部分支持特朗普的民众拒绝接受总统大选的结果。
民主党拜登团队的获胜代表着美国权贵精英利益的建制派的回归,这些权贵精英包括华盛顿的官僚集团、军工企业、硅谷和西雅图的大科技、主流媒体、以及华尔街的金融资本集团。代表社会精英和建制派的拜登团队又以崇尚政治正确和推进社会福利来获取底层民众尤其是有色人种的支持,在反对特朗普的旗帜下,形成了偏中间的建制派和偏左集团的政治联盟。拜登团队获胜后,既需要犒赏民主党内各路支持者,又需要安抚另一半支持特朗普的选民,因此庞大的财政支出就是不二选择,说白了就是用福利购买当下的支持和未来的选票。最近刚刚通过的1.9万亿美元纾困法案,真正用于纾困和防疫的可能不足20%,其余的部分几乎都是借着纾困名义而对特定利益群体的福利支出。
若在以往,美国在任总统往往在大选之年扩张财政赤字来争取选票,但选举之后无论是在任总统连任还是新人当选,都需要通过缩减赤字来平衡预算。但这种惯例已经被打破,尤其是民主党现在同时掌控白宫和参众两院,但优势非常微弱,民主共和两党在国会的席位差距极小,而且2020年的选举过程和结果充满争议。对拜登团队来讲,这个完全执政的窗口期可能只有短短两年,因此在推出各种刺激政策上其团队可以说是只争朝夕。
第二个因素就是政治理念。相对于代表保守思想的共和党,民主党的施政理念本身倾向于大政府和高福利。这些福利政策未必真的有助于降低美国贫富差距,事实上,不少针对特定人群的福利支出和优惠措施不仅不会降低贫富差距和减缓阶层分化,反而可能会加速阶层固化。但这些政策已经成为民主党的政治符号和争取选民的主要手段,因此拜登政府一上台就急于恢复奥巴马时代的各项政策,并且加速推进在奥巴马时代因为国会掣肘而未能执行的一些执政思路。
第三个因素就是经济学理念了。过去十来年经济学界试图解释日本和欧洲相继出现的低利率乃至负利率、低通胀和低增长等特殊现象,并且希望找到摆脱这种所谓“日本化”的灵丹妙药。现代货币理论(MMT)一定程度上就是这种背景下的产物,其政策主张就是政府的本币债务不是真正的债务,政府可采取大规模赤字财政的方法来拉动经济实现完全就业。尽管MMT也装模作样地讨论通胀和国际收支约束,但在MMT简陋的体系中并不占重要地位。虽然MMT并没有被主流经济学正式接纳,但实际上给本世纪来日美欧等发达经济体的量化宽松政策提供了一定的理论支撑,算是一个过度简化版乃至扭曲版的凯恩斯主义。主流经济学中,呼吁加大赤字力度来拉动经济的声音也占据主导地位。正如现任美国财政部长,同时也是著名经济学家的耶伦在其参议院入职听证会上所说的,美国政府需要即刻“大干一场(acting big)”,至于债务负担,那是以后才需要考虑的事。
美国强刺激的财政货币政策加上在疫苗接种方面的快速进展,对美国经济复苏、通胀、美元汇率、美国国债收益率、全球大宗商品价格、全球通胀,以及各国尤其是新兴市场国家的货币政策产生了一连串的影响。
美国经济方面,3月美国非农就业新增91.6万,远超市场预期,为7个月来最高,显示美国经济反弹强劲。除了放松疫情限制和2021年的巨额补贴刺激以外,因为防疫限制美国家庭过去一年大幅减少消费,而又因为天量的补贴,美国家庭在2020年相较往年额外多储蓄了1.6万亿美元,2021年一季度又额外储蓄了6000亿美元。加上在股票和房产等资产方面的升值,在经济重新开放初期,会形成一股爆发性的消费浪潮。当前美国疫苗接种已经达到每天300万到400万,相当于人口的1%左右,照这个速度下去,到6月底美国能基本完成全民接种的目标。若疫情真正因此受控,美国经济接下来两三个季度的反弹力度势必强劲。上一次美联储开会,一下子把对2021年的GDP增速预测从原来的4.2%上调到6.5%,从而带动一波市场预测的上调。目前已有一批机构预测2021年美国经济增长可达7%以上,甚至有可能超8%,创二战以来新高,从而完全抹去这两年因为疫情对增长的影响。
美国经济的复苏必然带来通胀的上行,而且持续时间可能超过官方和很多机构预期。作为美联储最关注的通胀指标,2月美国核心PCE只有同比1.4%,但官方和市场一致预期核心PCE会在未来几个月显著上行并超过2%。这一方面是由于报复性消费集中释放,远超市场供应能力,另一方面也是因为2020年的低基数。从先行指标来看,代表除原油外大宗商品价格的CRB现货指数,2021年3月份已经比2019全年平均高出23%。从采购经理人指数来看,美国制造业ISM的物价指数在3月为85.6,为2011年来最高,非制造业ISM的物价指数在3月为74,是全球金融危机以来最高。现在市场激烈争论的是核心PCE在二季度基数效应消失和报复性消费反弹释放之后以后,在多长时间内还会持续维持在2%以上。包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的乐观派认为通胀上行是短期的,一个关键原因是现在还有八九百万人处于失业状态。但我认为美联储和市场有可能低估通胀上行的幅度和持续时间的长度。
首先,若疫情完全受控,报复性消费需求远超供应能力,诸如度假等很多消费需求不得不延期至年底乃至2022年。
其次,由于包括美国在内的各国政府和央行行动迅速,这次疫情没有对金融机构和大部分核心企业造成实质性的伤害,疫情从本质上来讲是一场供给冲击而非需求冲击,这和日本20世纪90年代因为金融地产泡沫破灭所导致的金融危机有很大的差别,和全球金融危机以及其后的欧债危机也有本质的区别。供给冲击下,若供给瓶颈没有解决,光是增加货币信贷供应必然导致通胀;若供给瓶颈已经打通,但刺激政策幅度过大、延续时间过长也会导致通胀持续高企。
人们往往用日本和欧洲的例子来说明通胀风险不足虑,殊不知日本和欧洲低通胀的背后都有金融危机导致的总需求严重不足这个关键原因。
日本的企业和家庭在泡沫破灭之后长时间处于修复其资产负债表的过程之中,私人部门的需求严重不足。欧元区方面,因为欧元区的特殊架构使得财政赤字一直被严格控制,因此,欧盟和欧洲央行很难采取大幅度刺激政策。
最后,过去20年发达国家的低通胀有几个关键的结构性因素。全球化和中国的高速发展提供了大量廉价工业品,互联网和电子商务的发展大幅度降低了交易成本,美国页岩油革命打破了欧佩克对石油的垄断。但这些因素正在消失。疫情本身对全球化有一定的冲击,中国的劳动力成本在逐步上升,拜登政府对美国页岩油开采并不友善,在未来几年我们还看不到有新的结构性因素来抑制物价。
尽管美联储和美国财政部等政府机构认为通胀可控,核心PCE经过短暂上升到2%以上后会明显回落,但市场有其自身的判断。这种判断一方面体现在抵御通胀的资产价格上。从资产价格来看,美国股指屡创新高,美国房地产价格过去一年涨了11%,比特币价格在过去一年涨了7倍。另一方面则是在美国国债市场上,有代表性的美国十年期国债利率从2020年8月初低点的0.52%跃升到如今的1.73%,已经上涨了121点。根据通胀保值国债利率的推算,市场预计未来十年美国平均通胀率达2.4%,而一年前只有0.5%。
这种通胀压力也体现在大宗商品价格上。如前所述,代表除原油外大宗商品价格的CRB现货指数,2021年3月份已经比2019全年平均高出23%;虽然全球对原油的需求还明显低于疫情前,但原油价格已经回到疫情前水平;全球粮食价格已经比2019年全年平均高出25%。
美国财政货币政策的双宽松势必对全球经济产生很大的影响。从正面角度来讲,美国经济快速复苏会带动美国进口,从而拉动包括中国在内的出口。大宗商品价格的上升也有利于一些依靠各种大宗商品出口来挣取外汇的国家。但总体而言,强刺激下的美国经济给其他国家带来的更多是风险而非机遇。
首先,会导致资金回流美国。2013年5月22日伯南克发出有可能QE退坡的信号后,美国国债利率大幅上升,导致资金从新兴市场国家回流,美国股市只是在很短的时间内下跌之后就恢复上涨趋势,标准普尔指数在2013年全年仍上涨29%。但与此同时,一些新兴市场国家的汇率贬值,利率上升,股市下跌,并迫使部分国家加息来应对资金外流,造成所谓的“退坡风暴”(Taper tantrum)。最近两周巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯已经相继加息,主要也是因为资金流出压力和通胀上升的缘故,已经让人闻到了“退坡风暴”再次降临的味道。在疫情仍然肆虐的时候被迫加息,不啻是雪上加霜,对当地经济复苏极为不利。
其次,是通胀除了限制政策宽松之外,也会对一些国家的贸易条件和居民生活产生不利的影响。尽管有些国家在某些出口商品上获利,但也需要支付更多资金进口其他商品。贫困国家居民消费结构中粮食的比例较高,国际粮食价格的上涨尤其会对这些国家的民众生活带来较大的冲击。
再次,就是美国本身所面临的风险。尽管美联储和美国财政部都认为未来几个月的通胀上升将会转瞬即逝,但若核心PCE在2021年年底和2022年上半年都维持在2%以上,并带动一轮工资的上涨,从而有可能导致进入工资上升和涨价的恶性循环。2022年下半年美国又将进入中期选举,拜登政府势必要维持财政支出的力度来取保民主党在国会的席位,因此美国政府赤字很难在2022年快速下将。这种情况下,美国国内通胀预期还会高企,也有可能将核心PCE维持在2%以上,虽然美联储已经转向平均通胀目标,但通胀在2%以上持续时间过长也会给美联储带来相当大的压力。届时市场预期美联储加速退坡和提早加息的预期也会加强,市场对拜登政府加税的预期也会加强,对美国金融市场乃至国际金融市场而言会带来加大的不确定性。
由于中国是全球经济第二大国,也是世界第一出口大国,2020年中国对美出口总额达4518亿美元,增长7.9%,若中间增加值比重为60%左右,则对美出口在中国GDP中占比约1.8%。2021年前两个月中国对美出口同比增速跃升至87.3%,可见美国经济强劲复苏有利于中国经济增长。但负面影响也不能忽视。
一是中美利差缩小,资金流入相应也会受影响。二是大宗商品价格上升,因中国主要是进口大宗商品和出口工业品,中国贸易条件恶化,2021年的经常项目顺差也有可能下降。三是人民币(6.5404, 0.0009, 0.01%)兑美元的强势升值会告一段落。四是中国对新兴市场国家的出口因为这些国家所面临的困境可能会受些影响。五是因为大宗商品价格上升,中国通胀压力也会加大。
但中国毕竟是制造业大国,大宗商品价格的上升会被庞大的制造能力和企业间激烈的竞争而稀释一部分。再加上2021年非洲猪瘟已经得到控制,猪肉供应上升,2021年猪肉价格会大幅下降,成为遏制通胀的一个有力因素,因此,2021年通胀在中国不会是一个主要风险。
总的来说,由于中国经济体量大,基本面好,贸易盈余高,2020年和2021年货币政策没有大放水,财政政策较为审慎,中国不会像某些新兴市场国家那样,在美国国债利率上升时被迫加息。美国经济的强劲复苏对中国来讲,总体上是利大于弊的。
最后谈一下全球疫情反弹和美国强刺激的背景之下,全球非同步复苏对资产价格的影响。
美债方面,中长端美债收益率的变化取决于两个主要因素,一是美国经济增速,二是美国的通胀预期,我们认为两者都会在二季度进一步走高,因此,中长端美债收益率还有一些上升空间,十年期美债利率不排除超过2%的可能性。美元还有一定的升值空间,尤其是对新兴市场国家货币,针对发达经济体货币的美元指数(92.3270, 0.0050, 0.01%)还会进一步上升。强刺激和经济快速复苏之下,美国股市出现暴跌的可能性极小,股市在短期内整体会受益,和经济复苏相关联的板块尤其如此;此外美国房地产市场的牛市尚未结束。
我们真正需要担心的是新兴市场国家的汇率、债市和股市。除了已经加息的巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯之外,还有部分国家或许会步其后尘。因为美元升值和美债实际利率的上升,黄金等贵金属价格可能会较为疲软。
人民币方面,在维持对其一篮子货币币值稳定的政策背景下,因为美元的强势,人民币对美元或有小幅贬值压力。虽然美债利率上升,中国国债利率上升的空间有限,主因是政府对房地产行业的调控和新一轮环保整治压制了融资需求。

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The Italian village offering $1 homes to Americans upset by the US election result was one of our top stories on CNN Travel this week.
Like many other places in rural Italy (such as Sambuca in Sicily), the Sardinian village of Ollolai has an ongoing campaign to persuade outsiders to move there to revive the town’s fortunes. Focusing on the US election result is its latest strategy.
Despite all the houses going on offer, working visas to Italy are still very limited. Professional musicians Zeneba Bowers and Matt Walker gave up their Tennessee home in 2019 and moved to a village north of Rome after securing super-rare self-employed visas. Here’s how they did it.
California woman Chelsea Waite says it was “nothing less than a miracle” when she snagged the new digital nomad visa that launched in April 2024, although there have been few accounts of people getting hold of one. Here’s how it fell into place for the self-employed public relations professional.
For well-heeled Americans who set their sights beyond Italy, the options are greater. Interest in citizenship-by-investment “golden visas” has soared since the election, according to consultants who help the wealthy migrate.
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Parma ham is one of Italy’s tastiest exports, but fans of the cured delicacy should prepare themselves for potential disappointment as a crisis threatens supplies and drives up prices.
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The Italian village offering $1 homes to Americans upset by the US election result was one of our top stories on CNN Travel this week.
Like many other places in rural Italy (such as Sambuca in Sicily), the Sardinian village of Ollolai has an ongoing campaign to persuade outsiders to move there to revive the town’s fortunes. Focusing on the US election result is its latest strategy.
Despite all the houses going on offer, working visas to Italy are still very limited. Professional musicians Zeneba Bowers and Matt Walker gave up their Tennessee home in 2019 and moved to a village north of Rome after securing super-rare self-employed visas. Here’s how they did it.
California woman Chelsea Waite says it was “nothing less than a miracle” when she snagged the new digital nomad visa that launched in April 2024, although there have been few accounts of people getting hold of one. Here’s how it fell into place for the self-employed public relations professional.
For well-heeled Americans who set their sights beyond Italy, the options are greater. Interest in citizenship-by-investment “golden visas” has soared since the election, according to consultants who help the wealthy migrate.
Ham, cheese and bread
Parma ham is one of Italy’s tastiest exports, but fans of the cured delicacy should prepare themselves for potential disappointment as a crisis threatens supplies and drives up prices.
Over in the world of dairy, this year’s World Cheese Awards saw 4,786 cheeses from 47 countries assembled in the Portuguese city of Viseu to face judges’ scrutiny. The winning coagulated curd was a “voluptuous … match of protein and fat,” one juror said.
Finally, in the disputed Kashmir region of India, bakers are producing breads that could rival France. The rich bread culture is a legacy of the Silk Road trade route that once passed through the region.
Groundbreaking telescope reveals first piece of new cosmic map
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I’ve covered space exploration for nearly a decade at CNN, and there has never been a more exciting time to follow space and science discoveries. As researchers push forward to explore and understand the cosmos, advancements in technology are sparking rapid developments in rocketry, astronomical observatories and a multitude of scientific instruments.
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Astronomers have never detected dark matter, but they believe it makes up about 85% of the total matter in the universe. Meanwhile, the existence of dark energy helps researchers explain why the universe is expanding — and why that expansion is speeding up.
Extraordinary new scientific instruments are churning out trailblazing data, ready to reshape how scientists view the cosmos.
A prime example is the European Space Agency’s wide-angle Euclid telescope that launched in 2023 to investigate the riddles of dark energy and dark matter.
Euclid this week delivered the first piece of a cosmic map — containing about 100 million stars and galaxies — that will take six years to create.
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Meanwhile, on a mountaintop in northern Chile, the US National Science Foundation and Stanford University researchers are preparing to power up the world’s largest digital camera inside the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
The Israeli cabinet will vote on a ceasefire deal in Lebanon on Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesperson told CNN, after a source familiar with the matter said the Israeli prime minister had approved the plan “in principle.”
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Groundbreaking telescope reveals first piece of new cosmic map
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I’ve covered space exploration for nearly a decade at CNN, and there has never been a more exciting time to follow space and science discoveries. As researchers push forward to explore and understand the cosmos, advancements in technology are sparking rapid developments in rocketry, astronomical observatories and a multitude of scientific instruments.
Look no further than the missions racing to unlock dark matter and the mysterious force known as dark energy, both so named precisely because science has yet to explain these phenomena.
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Extraordinary new scientific instruments are churning out trailblazing data, ready to reshape how scientists view the cosmos.
A prime example is the European Space Agency’s wide-angle Euclid telescope that launched in 2023 to investigate the riddles of dark energy and dark matter.
Euclid this week delivered the first piece of a cosmic map — containing about 100 million stars and galaxies — that will take six years to create.
These stunning 3D observations may help scientists see how dark matter warps light and curves space across galaxies.
Meanwhile, on a mountaintop in northern Chile, the US National Science Foundation and Stanford University researchers are preparing to power up the world’s largest digital camera inside the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
Groundbreaking telescope reveals first piece of new cosmic map
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Greetings, earthlings! I’m Jackie Wattles, and I’m thrilled to be a new name bringing awe to your inbox.
I’ve covered space exploration for nearly a decade at CNN, and there has never been a more exciting time to follow space and science discoveries. As researchers push forward to explore and understand the cosmos, advancements in technology are sparking rapid developments in rocketry, astronomical observatories and a multitude of scientific instruments.
Look no further than the missions racing to unlock dark matter and the mysterious force known as dark energy, both so named precisely because science has yet to explain these phenomena.
https://kr13at.cc
Кракен тор
Astronomers have never detected dark matter, but they believe it makes up about 85% of the total matter in the universe. Meanwhile, the existence of dark energy helps researchers explain why the universe is expanding — and why that expansion is speeding up.
Extraordinary new scientific instruments are churning out trailblazing data, ready to reshape how scientists view the cosmos.
A prime example is the European Space Agency’s wide-angle Euclid telescope that launched in 2023 to investigate the riddles of dark energy and dark matter.
Euclid this week delivered the first piece of a cosmic map — containing about 100 million stars and galaxies — that will take six years to create.
These stunning 3D observations may help scientists see how dark matter warps light and curves space across galaxies.
Meanwhile, on a mountaintop in northern Chile, the US National Science Foundation and Stanford University researchers are preparing to power up the world’s largest digital camera inside the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
Trump's call for a protest crackdown has been a boon for Chinese propaganda
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Throughout the protests, the US was consistent in its support of people’s right to take to the streets and have their voice heard. Facing widespread unrest and public anger at home in the wake of the death of George Floyd, the reaction from US President Donald Trump appeared markedly different.
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On Monday, Trump called for the military to be deployed to “dominate” protesters, and demanded states do more to stem “acts of domestic terror.”
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The irony has not been lost on Beijing, which on Thursday marks (or rather doesn’t, the date is highly censored) its own military crackdown on anti-government protesters on June 4, 1989.
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“Washington’s promise of equality and justice for all in the country has remained hollow at best,” state news agency Xinhua said in a commentary titled “The coming suffocation of the American dream.”
“Amid the ongoing anti-racism protests in the country, decision-makers in Washington, instead of trying to sooth the pain and anger of the public, have been fanning the flames, calling protesters ‘THUGS,’ and threatening them with ‘the most vicious dogs, and most ominous weapons,” the commentary said.
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China Daily, a state-backed newspaper, noted that “The US, after the killing of Floyd, seems to be on fire, and troops have been mobilized to subdue angry demonstrators.”
“This is certainly not what the world expects to see in a country that is the world’s sole superpower,” it added. “But that sadly is the reality of the US.”
This rhetoric isn’t just embarrassing for Washington, it’s also a sign of how the US may find its influence damaged by a perceived hypocrisy over human rights at home and abroad.
Earlier today, Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam pointed to the unrest in the US as evidence of Washington’s “double standards.”
“They attach great importance to the national security of their country, but look at our national security through tinted spectacles, especially the current situation in Hong Kong,” she added.
The ability of Washington to influence Beijing’s position on Hong Kong – which is in part founded on fear of outside influence in the city – was already severely limited. The Trump administration’s reaction to protests at home may have hurt its position even further.
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A kayaker’s leg was amputated during a dramatic, hours-long rescue operation to free him from between rocks on a river in Australia on Saturday, local police said.
The man, a foreign tourist in his 60s, was airlifted to a hospital in Tasmania’s state capital Hobart where he was in a critical condition, police said, adding they were contacting his family.
His 20-hour ordeal began at about 2:30pm on Friday when he became trapped while kayaking through rapids with a group on the Franklin River, police said in a statement.
Authorities received an emergency alert from the man’s smartwatch and dispatched rescue units and paramedics, police said, adding that the area’s remoteness added complexity to the rescue effort.
Set in the rugged landscape of the Franklin-Gordon Wild Rivers National Park in the island state, the powerful 129-kilometer- (80-mile-) long river is a popular spot for kayaking and rafting.
Rescuers made several unsuccessful attempts to extract the man between Friday evening and Saturday morning. When his condition deteriorated after so many hours partially submerged in the water, a decision was made in consultation with the man to amputate his leg, police said.
“This rescue was an extremely challenging and technical operation, and an incredible effort over many hours to save the man’s life,” said Tasmania Police Acting Assistant Commissioner Doug Oosterloo in the statement.
“Every effort was made to extract the man before the difficult decision to amputate his leg.”
Oosterloo also praised the emergency responders. “I’d like to thank everyone who contributed to this operation in the most difficult of circumstances,” he said.
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The weather at Huntington Bank Field was the main talking point as the Cleveland Browns hosted division rivals Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
What started out as a wintery mix quickly turned to blizzard-like conditions in the second half as the Browns found a way past the Steelers 24-19 following a late touchdown from running back Nick Chubb.
With the kickoff temperature at 32 degrees Fahrenheit, the first half was a defensive tug-of-war between both teams.
Steelers kicker Chris Boswell opened the scoring with a 48-yard field goal in the second quarter. But on the ensuing possession, the Browns offense orchestrated a 12-play, 80-yard drive, capped off by a two-yard rushing touchdown by Chubb. Cleveland added a field goal before halftime to go into the locker room with a 10-3 lead.
Browns star defensive end Myles Garrett was a constant thorn in Pittsburgh’s side throughout the first half, with the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year going into the break with three sacks and a forced fumble.
Just as both teams were settling in after halftime, the stadium turned into a winter wonderland as snow blanketed not only the field but fans, players and coaches alike.
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A year on from Qatar 2022, what’s the legacy of a World Cup like no other?
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The 2022 World Cup final will go down as one of the most exciting, dramatic and memorable matches in the history of the game.
It was the scene of Lionel Messi’s greatest moment on a soccer pitch, in which he cemented his legacy as the best player of his generation after finally guiding Argentina to World Cup glory.
It was, for many, the perfect, fairytale ending to a tournament which thrilled well over a billion fans around the world. So good, perhaps, that many forgot it bookended the most controversial World Cup in history.
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Rewind to the start of the tournament and the talk was all about matters off the field: from workers’ rights to the treatment of the LGBTQ+ community.
Just hours before the opening match, FIFA President Gianni Infantino launched into a near hour-long tirade to hundreds of journalists at a press conference in Doha, where he accused Western critics of hypocrisy and racism.
“Reform and change takes time. It took hundreds of years in our countries in Europe. It takes time everywhere, the only way to get results is by engaging <>] not by shouting,” said Infantino.
At one point, the FIFA president challenged the room of journalists, stressing FIFA will protect the legacy for migrant workers that it set out with the Qatar authorities.
“I’ll be back, we’ll be here to check, don’t worry, because you will be gone,” he said.
So, a year on from the World Cup final, what is the legacy of the 2022 World Cup?
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“Our leader forever” was a slogan one often saw in Syria during the era of President Hafez al-Assad, father of today’s Syrian president.
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The prospect that the dour, stern Syrian leader would live forever was a source of dark humor for many of my Syrian friends when I lived and worked in Aleppo in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Hafez al-Assad died in June 2000. He wasn’t immortal after all.
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His regime, however, lives on under the leadership of his son Bashar al-Assad.
There were moments when the Bashar regime’s survival looked in doubt. When the so-called Arab Spring rolled across the region in 2011, toppling autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and mass protests broke out in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, some began to write epitaphs for the Assad dynasty.
But Syria’s allies – Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Russia – came to the rescue. For the past few years the struggle in Syria between a corrupt, brutal regime in Damascus and a divided, often extreme opposition seemed frozen in place.
Once shunned by his fellow Arab autocrats, Bashar al-Assad was gradually regaining the dubious respectability Arab regimes afford one another.
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You’ve come across a bison in the wild. It’s looking at you. Do you know what to do next?
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A dangerous encounter with a territorial bison and the subsequent viral video were not what Rebecca Clark had in mind when she set out for Caprock Canyons State Park in early October 2022.
She had been so enamored with Texas’ third-largest state park on her first solo hiking and camping trip there a year earlier that she decided to go back for more. Roughly two hours by car from either Lubbock or the Panhandle city of Amarillo, Caprock attracts visitors with big blue skies, brown and green prairielands and rugged red-rock formations.
Caprock has another draw – its wild bison herd, about 350 strong in late 2022. But bison, the great symbolic animal of the Great Plains, weren’t on her radar. Until suddenly, they were.
The Texas resident recounted her experience with CNN’s Ed Lavandera, telling him that she came upon a herd while she was walking a trail back from Lake Theo.
“I decided to just kind of wait for them to … get across the trail, and then I would pass them.” But they weren’t moving away fast enough for Clark. She said she decided to just walk by them – closer than the recommended safety distance. She was recording the moment on her smartphone.
In her video, Clark can be heard saying, “Thank you, I appreciate it” as she passes the animals.
Things got dangerous very quickly when one of the agitated bison took notice. “When I saw him turn, it’s like instantly I knew he was gonna come after me.”
And that’s exactly what the bison did. Once it charged, the large mammal was upon Clark within two seconds despite her frantic attempt to flee.
“It was so fast. He hit me in the back, rammed me, hooked me, then flipped me up and face forward into the mesquite bush.”
And there was Clark. Gored, bleeding and alone. How would she survive?
How to survive a bear attack – or better yet, avoid one altogether
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You’re out for a hike, reveling in glorious nature. Suddenly, you spot a bear. And the bear has spotted you, too. Would you know what to do next?
Beth Pratt sure would.
She was once on the Old Gardiner Road Trail in Yellowstone National Park, enjoying her run in wild nature. Her reverie came to an end when she came upon a grizzly bear eating flowers.
“I stopped. It stood on its hind legs and looked at me. I knew that wasn’t a threatening gesture,” she told CNN Travel. “I’m not kidding, it waved its paw at me as if to say, ‘just go on your way,’ and went back to eating.”
“And I walked slowly away and put some distance between us, and the encounter ended fine.”
When it comes to dealing with bears, Pratt does have a thing or two on almost all the rest of us, though.
She is the California regional executive director for the National Wildlife Federation, a job she’s had for more than 10 years. She worked in Yellowstone for several years – and once saw nine grizzlies in one day there.
Finally, she lives on the border of Yosemite National Park, and bears will pass through her yard, including this one seen in the footage above in late September 2021.
You can hear the enthusiasm in Pratt’s voice as she shares her bear bona fides and advice to make sure bear/human encounters are delightful, not dangerous.
“A wild bear is a beautiful sight to see. It’s incredible to see them in the wild. I never had a bad experience with bears. What I try to get people to feel is respect, not fear, for bears. The animal usually wants to avoid the encounters.”
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They fell in love three decades ago. Now they pilot planes together
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On their first flight together, Joel Atkinson and Shelley Atkinson couldn’t contain their excitement. They enthused to the flight attendants. They posed for photos. They told passengers via a pre-flight announcement.
“We made a big deal about it,” Joel tells CNN Travel.
Then, right before take off, Joel and Shelley sat side by side in the flight deck, just the two of them. They’d come full circle, and were about to embark on an exciting new chapter.
“It felt amazing,” Shelley tells CNN Travel.
“As we prepared to take off, I was giddy, euphoric,” says Joel.
Joel and Shelley met as twentysomethings flying jets in the US Air Force. They became fast friends, then, over time, fell in love.
Today, they’ve been married for 27 years and counting. They’ve brought up two kids together. And now they’re both pilots for Southwest Airlines. They regularly fly together, with Joel as captain and Shelley as first officer.
The couple say working together is “amazing.” They treat layovers as “date nights.” They learn from one another’s respective “wisdom and judgment.”
And no, they don’t argue mid-flight.
“People ask us, how does it work, flying together?” says Joel. “We know a few pilot couples and some of them fly together, some of them don’t. I’ve heard people say, ‘Oh I could never fly with my wife or my husband.’”
For Joel and Shelley, working together is seamless – a joy that comes easily to them both.
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Four friends posed for a photo on vacation in 1972. Over 50 years later, they recreated it
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In the photo, four young women walk arm in arm, smiling and laughing, on a beach promenade. They’re dressed in mini skirts and flip flops, and there’s what looks like a 1960s Ford Corsair in the background. This is clearly a snapshot from a bygone era, but there’s something about the picture — the womens’ expressions, their laughs — that captures a timeless and universal feeling of joy, youth and adventure.
For the four women in the photo, Marion Bamforth, Sue Morris, Carol Ansbro and Mary Helliwell, the picture is a firm favorite. Taken over 50 years ago on a group vacation to the English seaside town of Torquay, Devon, the photo’s since become symbolic of their now decades-long friendship. Whenever they see the picture, they’re transported back to the excitement of that first trip together.
“It’s always been our memory of Torquay,” Sue Morris tells CNN Travel. “The iconic photograph — which is why I got the idea of trying to recreate it.”
‘The iconic photograph’
Bamforth, Morris, Ansbro and Helliwell were 17 when the photo was taken, “by one of these roving photographers that used to roam the promenade and prey on tourists like us,” as Morris recalls it.
It was the summer of 1972 and the four high school classmates — who grew up in the city of Halifax, in the north of England — were staying in a rented caravan in coastal Devon, in southwest England. It was a week of laughs, staying out late, flirting with boys in fish and chip shops, sunburn, swapping clothes, sharing secrets and making memories by the seaside.
Fast forward to 2024 and Bamforth, Morris, Ansbro and Helliwell remain firm friends. They’ve been by each other’s sides as they’ve carved out careers, fallen in love, brought up families and gone through heartbreak and grief.
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Sydney or Melbourne? It’s the great Australian city debate, one which pits the commerce, business and money of Sydney against cultural, arts-loving, coffee-drinking Melbourne.
While picking one can be tricky, there’s no denying that Australia’s second city, home to 5.2 million people, has a charm all of its own.
Melburnians (never Melbournites) get to enjoy a place where nature is close by, urban delights are readily available and the food and drink scene isn’t just the best in Australia, but also one of the finest in the world.
There’s no better way to start a trip to Melbourne than with a proper cup of coffee. Coffee is serious stuff here, with no room for a weak, burnt or flavorless brew. The history of coffee in Melbourne goes back to the years after World War II, when Italian immigrants arrived and brought their machines with them.
Within 30 years, a thriving cafe scene had developed and, as the 21st century dawned, the city had become the epicenter of a new global coffee culture. The iconic Pellegrini’s on Bourke Street and Mario’s in the Fitzroy neighborhood are the best old-school hangouts, while Market Lane helped lead the way in bringing Melbourne’s modern-day coffee scene to the masses.
Kate Reid is the best person to speak with about Melbourne’s coffee obsession. The founder of Lune Croissanterie, she was once a Formula 1 design engineer and has brought her expertise and precision to crafting the world’s best croissant, as well as knowing how to brew a coffee, and specifically a flat white, just the way it should be.
“Good coffee is just ingrained in everyday culture for every single Melburnian now,” says Reid. “I think that that peak of pretentious specialty coffee has come and gone, and now it’s just come down to a level of a really high standard everywhere.”
That’s clear when she pours a flat white. Describing herself as a perfectionist, the way she froths the milk and tends to the cup is a sight to behold.
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Простота и эффективность использования ГУВ-38 позволила Бийскому, Белгородскому, Кусинскому и Дорогобужскому заводам серийно оснащать ими свои котлы и экономайзеры.
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Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
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At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
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С помощью генератора ГУВ-38 можно очищать все типы котлов, от малых (Е1/9, «Братск») до крупных энергетических (ПТВМ-180, БКЗ-75, КВГМ-100).
Простота и эффективность использования ГУВ-38 позволила Бийскому, Белгородскому, Кусинскому и Дорогобужскому заводам серийно оснащать ими свои котлы и экономайзеры.
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In China, people are hiring ‘climbing buddies’ for big money. The more attractive they are, the higher the price
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Wendy Chen decided to challenge herself by climbing Mount Tai, a well-known mountain in eastern China.
But there was one obstacle in her way: she couldn’t find a friend to join her for the five-hour trek.
Rather than forgo her plans, the 25-year-old hired a “climbing buddy,” a young man with extensive outdoor experience, to accompany and support her to the 5,000-foot peak.
Known in Chinese as “pei pa” (meaning “accompany to climb”), these are young Chinese men who join strangers on their journeys up popular mountains for a price. The trend has gained momentum this year, as hashtags related to “climbing buddy” have had over 100 million views on Chinese social media.
Young, athletic individuals, often university students or even military veterans, advertise themselves on social media platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin, with profiles featuring their height, fitness level and hiking experience. They usually charge between 200 to 600 yuan ($30 to $85) per trip.
During the climb, these “buddies” will do anything to distract their clients from feeling exhausted and push them to keep going: from singing, telling jokes, playing music, verbal encouragement, going so far as carrying their bags, holding their hands, and pulling them.
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Chen and her climbing buddy’s adventure began at around 8:00 pm so she could arrive at the peak in time for the famous sunrise. After assessing her fitness level, her climbing buddy planned a moderate route and carried her backpack the whole way.
When they faced chilling winds at the peak, Chen’s climbing buddy rented a thick coat for her while directing her to a walled shelter.
At the moment the sun rose, Chen’s climbing buddy was already prepared with a national flag and other props so that she could take a memorable photo. Though she felt his photography skills still had room to improve, she rated her climbing buddy as “satisfactory.” The service cost her 350 yuan ($49).
Though Chen paid a typical price for a climbing buddy, she acknowledges that more good-looking buddies can command higher rates.
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Climbing buddies’ main customers tend to be single young women, but that’s slowly changing.
A video of a strong male university student carrying a three-year-old effortlessly up a steep mountain — while the toddler’s mother trailed far behind — went viral this summer.
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Which fashion item is as beloved by members of the royal family as it is by JLo? Or as relevant on the runways of 2024 as in the knitting catalogs of 1960? The answer is surprisingly festive. The Fair Isle knit, a two-stranded knitting tradition originating off the coast of Scotland, has been a wardrobe staple for well over 100 years — keeping everyone from 18th century fisherman to Mick Jagger warm.
In the last five years, luxury brands Ralph Lauren, Thom Browne, Chanel, Celine, Balenciaga, Raf Simons, Versace and Dries van Noten have all sent their renditions of the heritage knit down the catwalk. London-based designer Molly Goddard has even made the pattern something of an unofficial signature, making sure to pair a structured Fair Isle-style knit with a flouncy, tulle skirt in almost every collection.
In short, it has become a winter classic that seems perpetually in vogue. Rom-com leading man, Adam Brody, recently wore a red and white version on the cover of Stylist magazine; while Katie Holmes was snapped running errands in an old beige Fair Isle favorite from 2022.
For those in the northern hemisphere, it’s appropriate to shrug on as soon as the nights draw in right until sweater weather deteriorates. That being said, even in season-less Los Angeles, stars like Hailey Bieber have been seen in the cozy Fair Isle knits grabbing coffees.
Taking its name from the island of Fair Isle — part of the Shetland archipelago about 100 miles off the northeastern coast of Scotland — the knitting technique first began in fisherman’s hats during the 18th and 19th century (our beloved sweaters came much later). The two strand pattern was not only artistic, but made the tall, conical shaped caps extra warm by doubling the textile mass. They often featured a knitted interior lining, too.
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Как ГСУ питерского главка МВД выбивало «показания» по «делу «Лайф-из-Гуд» –«Гермес» – «Бест Вей»
5 декабря на заседании Приморского районного суда Санкт-Петербурга была допрошена в качестве свидетеля 75-летняя Зоя Магомедовна Семенова из Самары.
Она сообщила суду, что была пайщиком кооператива «Бест Вей» и клиентом компании «Гермес», консультантом, привлекавшим клиентов и в «Гермес», и в «Бест Вей», но больше в «Бест Вей», так как он был более интересен ее знакомым. Пояснила, что «Бест Вей» и «Гермес» – разные организации, а не подразделения одной, как пытаются представить следствие и государственное обвинение.
У Зои Магомедовны было три договора с кооперативом на приобретение квартир, один из них – на внука. С помощью кооператива, сообщила она, многие приобрели квартиру, в том числе участники СВО. Многие не успели приобрести из-за того, что счета кооператива были арестованы, а сам он руководителем следственной группы Винокуровым признан гражданским ответчиком по уголовному делу.
Кооператив, подчеркнула она, работал с 2014 года, действительно помогал приобрести жилье, никто в него людей не заманивал. Кооператив, пояснила Зоя Магомедовна, не имел никаких признаков финансовой пирамиды, в чем его обвиняет следствие.
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Зоя Магомедовна была приглашена как свидетельница обвинения, на нее именно в этом качестве рассчитывали государственные обвинители из Прокуратуры Санкт-Петербурга (покрывающие преступления следственной группы ГСУ питерского главка МВД).
Но ее показания на суде полностью разошлись с теми, что она (якобы) давала на следствии – следователям Сапетовой и Мальцеву.
В выдуманном следователями тексте, зачитанном прокурором, она:
– якобы обвиняла кооператив в том, что он ее обманул – что она опровергла в суде;
– якобы предъявляла претензии, что кооператив работал непрозрачно, непонятно как формируется очередь на жилье, от пайщиков закрыта информация о состоянии паевого и других фондов – она полностью опровергла это в суде, заявив, что кооператив работал абсолютно прозрачно для пайщиков, информация была доступна в реальном времени, механизм работы «Бест Вей» был совершенно понятен;
– якобы заявила следствию, что работа кооператива строилась на обмане – сказала в суде: «Мы никого не обманывали»;
– якобы рассказывала об аффилированности кооператива «Бест Вей» и «Гермесом» – что она также опровергла в суде, подчеркнув, что это разные организации;
– якобы пришла к заключению, что кооператив – это пирамида – что она полностью опровергла в суде.
Зоя Магомедовна категорически отвергла показания, которые якобы давала следствию: «Я не могла всего этого говорить, я даже терминов и слов таких не знаю, слышу все это впервые, вслух показания мне никто не зачитывал!». Таким образом, следователи прямо нарушили УПК.
Прессинг начался с задержания
Зоя Магомедовна пояснила суду, что была задержана в аэропорту Санкт-Петербурга – когда она должна была улетать в Самару вместе с другими пайщиками из Самарской области, с которыми приезжала на суд об аресте счетов кооператива, чтобы поддержать кооператив.
Перед этим ей позвонила соседка и рассказала, что в ее дом в Самаре в ее отсутствие ворвались полицейские, они сломали двери, разбили окна и учинили обыск без хозяйки. Причем Семенова приглашена как свидетельница обвинения – на основании тех показаний, которые якобы дала на следствии (на самом деле выдуманы следователем-преступницей Сапетовой) и которые полностью опровергла в суде.
Гестаповец и обманщица
Зоя Магомедовна допрос частично помнит, частично не помнит – так как очень плохо себя чувствовала: у нее было высокое давление (она – хронический гипертоник с инвалидностью). С ней работали два следователя: Сапетова и Мальцев. Мальцев кричал на нее, угрожал, что прямо сейчас спустит ее в подвал. Сапетова разговаривала спокойно, «входила в положение». Но при этом не давала Семеновой пить, о чем та неоднократно просила, и не давала подышать свежим воздухом, ссылаясь на необходимость проводить допрос без пауз.
«Допрос продолжался 12 часов – и когда он закончился, мне было не до чтения. Я подписывала не читая, чтобы только побыстрее уйти», – рассказала Зоя Семенова суду.
То есть следователи сознательно создали риски для здоровья допрашиваемой, чтобы обманным путем получить нужные им, заранее написанные показания. И это далеко не единичный пример – один из свидетелей умер после допроса в ГСУ.
Возмутительно, что липовое уголовное дело, сплошь состоящее из подобных «показаний», крышуется руководством МВД во главе с Колокольцевым. А также Прокуратурой Санкт-Петербурга – хотя адвокаты кооператива и обвиняемых предупреждали прокуратуру, что дело зиждется исключительно на липовых, нарисованных показаниях и развалится в суде!
Преступные следователи Сапетова, Мальцев, их коллеги по следственной группе, а также руководивший следственной группой Винокуров должны быть привлечены к уголовной ответственности! Выявленные факты должны стать предметом внимания генерального прокурора Краснова, председателя Следственного комитета России Бастрыкина и главы ФСБ Бортникова!
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Ну вы вообще видели, на кого они опирались, когда все это дело завели? Девочка с техникумом, которая даже не удосужилась нормально изучить материалы, а просто "переложила" что-то там из старого письма. Как так можно вообще? Это ж не экспертное заключение, а откровенное надувательство! Мы тут пытаемся строить будущее, кооператив помогал людям улучшать свои жилищные условия, а они одним махом взяли и обвинили нас в пирамиде. За что? За то, что мы активно работали? Если уж кто-то на кого-то и охотится, так это ЦБ на «<a href="https://lyudidela.press/articles/upravlenie/piramida-iz-vydumok-o-best-vej/">Бест Вей</a>». Никаких доказательств, никаких нормальных обоснований – только личное мнение, которое не стоит ломаного гроша.