在2020年底展望2021时，大多数机构预测在大规模疫苗接种的推动下，全球防疫节节胜利，全球经济同步复苏。2021一季度已经过去，全球疫情又一次反弹，基本可判断防疫任重道远，全球经济难言同步复苏，各国在疫情防控、疫苗接种、政策制定以及经济复苏方面的差异，是现今研究国际经济形势和资产配置的核心。
中国以外，美国货币财政双宽松，尤其是财政政策极具扩张性，短期内经济可能会一枝独秀。虽然美国的强劲复苏也会拉动别国经济，但美国作为世界经济第一大国和全球储备货币发行国，其过度松弛的财政政策在短中期内会导致全球大宗商品价格快速上涨，美国国债利率快速上升，资金回流美国，因而也会牵累他国，某些新兴市场国家已经被迫加息，各国政策开始分道而行。市场或低估美国和全球通胀的压力，美联储在2021年底或2022年初或许会面临更具挑战性的局面。美国国债利率和美元汇率还有进一步上升的空间；与2013年相似，美国股市，尤其是和疫情后经济复苏相关的板块，表现可能优于新兴市场和其他发达国家，而部分新兴市场国家的利率可能被动上调、汇率贬值、股市受压。中国可从美国的强劲复苏中受益，但也会面临一定压力，总体来讲可独善其身。
全球非同步复苏背后有两组关键因素：一是新冠疫情和疫苗接种，二是货币和财政政策。
新冠疫情方面，全球每日新增病例于2021年1月初在73万左右见顶之后快速回落至2月底的36万附近，但最近几周再次急速回升至50万以上；欧洲大陆、巴西和印度等地的反弹尤其明显，如巴西目前日新增病例已经跃升到了9万至10万左右的新高，印度过去连续三天新增病例在9万以上。与此相反，美国的疫情防控取得明显进展，日新增病例从1月初29万左右的高点急速回落到现今的6万左右。
新增病例走势之间的反差取决于众多因素，但疫苗接种速度应该起到了较为关键的作用。在疫苗接种速度最快的以色列，接种率已达61%，日新增病例已经从年初的8500左右下降到现在的180附近。疫苗接种速度排名第三的英国，接种率已达46%，日新增病例已经从年初的6万左右剧减到现在的2400左右。美国32%的接种率也遥遥领先绝大部分国家，在降低日新增病例方面或许功不可没。而欧元(1.1872, 0.0000, 0.00%)区目前的接种率只有13%，远远落后于美英，其大幅反弹的日新增病例和其滞后的接种率不无关系。即使这样，欧元区的疫苗接种率还是要远高于发展中国家。根据我们的统计，截止到这周一，发展中国家的疫苗接种率只有5.0%，拉美略高，在6.6%，南亚的印度是5.0%，东南亚的人口大国印尼只有3.2%。中国因为在防疫方面极为高效，疫苗接种率和日新增病例并无关系，目前接种率在8.3%，高于绝大部分发展中国家，但显著低于发达国家平均水平。
货币和财政政策方面，美国一骑绝尘。美国世界第一的经济体量固然使得其财政货币政策对全球经济有着很大的影响，但更多的是通过作为全球最主要国际储备和结算货币的美元和作为世界金融中心的华尔街对全球经济施加巨大的影响。
美国2020年财政赤字占GDP的14.6%，为二战以来最高。在经济已经快速复苏的背景之下，拜登政府在推出天量的1.9万亿美元刺激计划之后，紧锣密鼓筹划推出2.25万亿美元的“基建”投资计划，2021年赤字率保守估计要在15.6%以上。
相比而言，欧元区2020年赤字率为9.3%，2021年根据预算，约为6.4%，远低于美国；日本2020年的赤字率略高，为17.3%，但2021年要大幅降低到5.5%。2008年全球金融危机爆发后美国实行扩张性财政政策，赤字率从2008年的3.1%急升到2009年9.8%、2010年的8.7%和2011年的8.4%，但和2020年及2021年的赤字率相比，则是小巫见大巫。
与此同时，美联储吸取其在全球金融危机后的经验教训，多次重申维持现今宽松的货币政策，放宽2%的通胀目标，执行“平均通胀目标”政策，目前每个月1200亿美元的量化宽松不会在短期内退坡。而根据美联储公开市场操作委员会成员的预测，加息要到2024年才开始。因此，美国经济现在面临二战以来前所未有的财政货币双双极度宽松的局面。
2020年由于新冠疫情的突然暴发，各国竭尽全力扩张财政支出来纾困和刺激经济是份内之事，但在经济已经从低谷大幅反弹，经济结构已经做出适度调整来应对疫情的背景之下，美国2021年连续推出天量赤字就显得不可思议了。为什么美国能出台如此反常的政策呢？我想大致有三个因素。
最重要的因素来自美国内政。近年来美国国内贫富差距拉大，阶级和种族矛盾加剧，民众也因宗教信仰和政治理念的分歧而加剧分化，社会很难形成共识。新冠疫情不仅暴露了美国国内的各种问题和矛盾，又因为疫情在美国大选年暴发，对美国大选的方式产生较大影响，使得绝大部分支持特朗普的民众拒绝接受总统大选的结果。
民主党拜登团队的获胜代表着美国权贵精英利益的建制派的回归，这些权贵精英包括华盛顿的官僚集团、军工企业、硅谷和西雅图的大科技、主流媒体、以及华尔街的金融资本集团。代表社会精英和建制派的拜登团队又以崇尚政治正确和推进社会福利来获取底层民众尤其是有色人种的支持，在反对特朗普的旗帜下，形成了偏中间的建制派和偏左集团的政治联盟。拜登团队获胜后，既需要犒赏民主党内各路支持者，又需要安抚另一半支持特朗普的选民，因此庞大的财政支出就是不二选择，说白了就是用福利购买当下的支持和未来的选票。最近刚刚通过的1.9万亿美元纾困法案，真正用于纾困和防疫的可能不足20%，其余的部分几乎都是借着纾困名义而对特定利益群体的福利支出。
若在以往，美国在任总统往往在大选之年扩张财政赤字来争取选票，但选举之后无论是在任总统连任还是新人当选，都需要通过缩减赤字来平衡预算。但这种惯例已经被打破，尤其是民主党现在同时掌控白宫和参众两院，但优势非常微弱，民主共和两党在国会的席位差距极小，而且2020年的选举过程和结果充满争议。对拜登团队来讲，这个完全执政的窗口期可能只有短短两年，因此在推出各种刺激政策上其团队可以说是只争朝夕。
第二个因素就是政治理念。相对于代表保守思想的共和党，民主党的施政理念本身倾向于大政府和高福利。这些福利政策未必真的有助于降低美国贫富差距，事实上，不少针对特定人群的福利支出和优惠措施不仅不会降低贫富差距和减缓阶层分化，反而可能会加速阶层固化。但这些政策已经成为民主党的政治符号和争取选民的主要手段，因此拜登政府一上台就急于恢复奥巴马时代的各项政策，并且加速推进在奥巴马时代因为国会掣肘而未能执行的一些执政思路。
第三个因素就是经济学理念了。过去十来年经济学界试图解释日本和欧洲相继出现的低利率乃至负利率、低通胀和低增长等特殊现象，并且希望找到摆脱这种所谓“日本化”的灵丹妙药。现代货币理论（MMT）一定程度上就是这种背景下的产物，其政策主张就是政府的本币债务不是真正的债务，政府可采取大规模赤字财政的方法来拉动经济实现完全就业。尽管MMT也装模作样地讨论通胀和国际收支约束，但在MMT简陋的体系中并不占重要地位。虽然MMT并没有被主流经济学正式接纳，但实际上给本世纪来日美欧等发达经济体的量化宽松政策提供了一定的理论支撑，算是一个过度简化版乃至扭曲版的凯恩斯主义。主流经济学中，呼吁加大赤字力度来拉动经济的声音也占据主导地位。正如现任美国财政部长，同时也是著名经济学家的耶伦在其参议院入职听证会上所说的，美国政府需要即刻“大干一场（acting big）”，至于债务负担，那是以后才需要考虑的事。
美国强刺激的财政货币政策加上在疫苗接种方面的快速进展，对美国经济复苏、通胀、美元汇率、美国国债收益率、全球大宗商品价格、全球通胀，以及各国尤其是新兴市场国家的货币政策产生了一连串的影响。
美国经济方面，3月美国非农就业新增91.6万，远超市场预期，为7个月来最高，显示美国经济反弹强劲。除了放松疫情限制和2021年的巨额补贴刺激以外，因为防疫限制美国家庭过去一年大幅减少消费，而又因为天量的补贴，美国家庭在2020年相较往年额外多储蓄了1.6万亿美元，2021年一季度又额外储蓄了6000亿美元。加上在股票和房产等资产方面的升值，在经济重新开放初期，会形成一股爆发性的消费浪潮。当前美国疫苗接种已经达到每天300万到400万，相当于人口的1%左右，照这个速度下去，到6月底美国能基本完成全民接种的目标。若疫情真正因此受控，美国经济接下来两三个季度的反弹力度势必强劲。上一次美联储开会，一下子把对2021年的GDP增速预测从原来的4.2%上调到6.5%，从而带动一波市场预测的上调。目前已有一批机构预测2021年美国经济增长可达7%以上，甚至有可能超8%，创二战以来新高，从而完全抹去这两年因为疫情对增长的影响。
美国经济的复苏必然带来通胀的上行，而且持续时间可能超过官方和很多机构预期。作为美联储最关注的通胀指标，2月美国核心PCE只有同比1.4%，但官方和市场一致预期核心PCE会在未来几个月显著上行并超过2%。这一方面是由于报复性消费集中释放，远超市场供应能力，另一方面也是因为2020年的低基数。从先行指标来看，代表除原油外大宗商品价格的CRB现货指数，2021年3月份已经比2019全年平均高出23%。从采购经理人指数来看，美国制造业ISM的物价指数在3月为85.6，为2011年来最高，非制造业ISM的物价指数在3月为74，是全球金融危机以来最高。现在市场激烈争论的是核心PCE在二季度基数效应消失和报复性消费反弹释放之后以后，在多长时间内还会持续维持在2%以上。包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的乐观派认为通胀上行是短期的，一个关键原因是现在还有八九百万人处于失业状态。但我认为美联储和市场有可能低估通胀上行的幅度和持续时间的长度。
首先，若疫情完全受控，报复性消费需求远超供应能力，诸如度假等很多消费需求不得不延期至年底乃至2022年。
其次，由于包括美国在内的各国政府和央行行动迅速，这次疫情没有对金融机构和大部分核心企业造成实质性的伤害，疫情从本质上来讲是一场供给冲击而非需求冲击，这和日本20世纪90年代因为金融地产泡沫破灭所导致的金融危机有很大的差别，和全球金融危机以及其后的欧债危机也有本质的区别。供给冲击下，若供给瓶颈没有解决，光是增加货币信贷供应必然导致通胀；若供给瓶颈已经打通，但刺激政策幅度过大、延续时间过长也会导致通胀持续高企。
人们往往用日本和欧洲的例子来说明通胀风险不足虑，殊不知日本和欧洲低通胀的背后都有金融危机导致的总需求严重不足这个关键原因。
日本的企业和家庭在泡沫破灭之后长时间处于修复其资产负债表的过程之中，私人部门的需求严重不足。欧元区方面，因为欧元区的特殊架构使得财政赤字一直被严格控制，因此，欧盟和欧洲央行很难采取大幅度刺激政策。
最后，过去20年发达国家的低通胀有几个关键的结构性因素。全球化和中国的高速发展提供了大量廉价工业品，互联网和电子商务的发展大幅度降低了交易成本，美国页岩油革命打破了欧佩克对石油的垄断。但这些因素正在消失。疫情本身对全球化有一定的冲击，中国的劳动力成本在逐步上升，拜登政府对美国页岩油开采并不友善，在未来几年我们还看不到有新的结构性因素来抑制物价。
尽管美联储和美国财政部等政府机构认为通胀可控，核心PCE经过短暂上升到2%以上后会明显回落，但市场有其自身的判断。这种判断一方面体现在抵御通胀的资产价格上。从资产价格来看，美国股指屡创新高，美国房地产价格过去一年涨了11%，比特币价格在过去一年涨了7倍。另一方面则是在美国国债市场上，有代表性的美国十年期国债利率从2020年8月初低点的0.52%跃升到如今的1.73%，已经上涨了121点。根据通胀保值国债利率的推算，市场预计未来十年美国平均通胀率达2.4%，而一年前只有0.5%。
这种通胀压力也体现在大宗商品价格上。如前所述，代表除原油外大宗商品价格的CRB现货指数，2021年3月份已经比2019全年平均高出23%；虽然全球对原油的需求还明显低于疫情前，但原油价格已经回到疫情前水平；全球粮食价格已经比2019年全年平均高出25%。
美国财政货币政策的双宽松势必对全球经济产生很大的影响。从正面角度来讲，美国经济快速复苏会带动美国进口，从而拉动包括中国在内的出口。大宗商品价格的上升也有利于一些依靠各种大宗商品出口来挣取外汇的国家。但总体而言，强刺激下的美国经济给其他国家带来的更多是风险而非机遇。
首先，会导致资金回流美国。2013年5月22日伯南克发出有可能QE退坡的信号后，美国国债利率大幅上升，导致资金从新兴市场国家回流，美国股市只是在很短的时间内下跌之后就恢复上涨趋势，标准普尔指数在2013年全年仍上涨29%。但与此同时，一些新兴市场国家的汇率贬值，利率上升，股市下跌，并迫使部分国家加息来应对资金外流，造成所谓的“退坡风暴”（Taper tantrum）。最近两周巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯已经相继加息，主要也是因为资金流出压力和通胀上升的缘故，已经让人闻到了“退坡风暴”再次降临的味道。在疫情仍然肆虐的时候被迫加息，不啻是雪上加霜，对当地经济复苏极为不利。
其次，是通胀除了限制政策宽松之外，也会对一些国家的贸易条件和居民生活产生不利的影响。尽管有些国家在某些出口商品上获利，但也需要支付更多资金进口其他商品。贫困国家居民消费结构中粮食的比例较高，国际粮食价格的上涨尤其会对这些国家的民众生活带来较大的冲击。
再次，就是美国本身所面临的风险。尽管美联储和美国财政部都认为未来几个月的通胀上升将会转瞬即逝，但若核心PCE在2021年年底和2022年上半年都维持在2%以上，并带动一轮工资的上涨，从而有可能导致进入工资上升和涨价的恶性循环。2022年下半年美国又将进入中期选举，拜登政府势必要维持财政支出的力度来取保民主党在国会的席位，因此美国政府赤字很难在2022年快速下将。这种情况下，美国国内通胀预期还会高企，也有可能将核心PCE维持在2%以上，虽然美联储已经转向平均通胀目标，但通胀在2%以上持续时间过长也会给美联储带来相当大的压力。届时市场预期美联储加速退坡和提早加息的预期也会加强，市场对拜登政府加税的预期也会加强，对美国金融市场乃至国际金融市场而言会带来加大的不确定性。
由于中国是全球经济第二大国，也是世界第一出口大国，2020年中国对美出口总额达4518亿美元，增长7.9%，若中间增加值比重为60%左右，则对美出口在中国GDP中占比约1.8%。2021年前两个月中国对美出口同比增速跃升至87.3%，可见美国经济强劲复苏有利于中国经济增长。但负面影响也不能忽视。
一是中美利差缩小，资金流入相应也会受影响。二是大宗商品价格上升，因中国主要是进口大宗商品和出口工业品，中国贸易条件恶化，2021年的经常项目顺差也有可能下降。三是人民币(6.5404, 0.0009, 0.01%)兑美元的强势升值会告一段落。四是中国对新兴市场国家的出口因为这些国家所面临的困境可能会受些影响。五是因为大宗商品价格上升，中国通胀压力也会加大。
但中国毕竟是制造业大国，大宗商品价格的上升会被庞大的制造能力和企业间激烈的竞争而稀释一部分。再加上2021年非洲猪瘟已经得到控制，猪肉供应上升，2021年猪肉价格会大幅下降，成为遏制通胀的一个有力因素，因此，2021年通胀在中国不会是一个主要风险。
总的来说，由于中国经济体量大，基本面好，贸易盈余高，2020年和2021年货币政策没有大放水，财政政策较为审慎，中国不会像某些新兴市场国家那样，在美国国债利率上升时被迫加息。美国经济的强劲复苏对中国来讲，总体上是利大于弊的。
最后谈一下全球疫情反弹和美国强刺激的背景之下，全球非同步复苏对资产价格的影响。
美债方面，中长端美债收益率的变化取决于两个主要因素，一是美国经济增速，二是美国的通胀预期，我们认为两者都会在二季度进一步走高，因此，中长端美债收益率还有一些上升空间，十年期美债利率不排除超过2%的可能性。美元还有一定的升值空间，尤其是对新兴市场国家货币，针对发达经济体货币的美元指数(92.3270, 0.0050, 0.01%)还会进一步上升。强刺激和经济快速复苏之下，美国股市出现暴跌的可能性极小，股市在短期内整体会受益，和经济复苏相关联的板块尤其如此；此外美国房地产市场的牛市尚未结束。
我们真正需要担心的是新兴市场国家的汇率、债市和股市。除了已经加息的巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯之外，还有部分国家或许会步其后尘。因为美元升值和美债实际利率的上升，黄金等贵金属价格可能会较为疲软。
人民币方面，在维持对其一篮子货币币值稳定的政策背景下，因为美元的强势，人民币对美元或有小幅贬值压力。虽然美债利率上升，中国国债利率上升的空间有限，主因是政府对房地产行业的调控和新一轮环保整治压制了融资需求。
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Arrowheads reveal the presence of a mysterious army in Europe’s oldest battle
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Today, the lush, green valley surrounding the Tollense River in northeast Germany appears to be a serene place to appreciate nature.
But to archaeologists, the Tollense Valley is considered Europe’s oldest battlefield.
An amateur archaeologist first spotted a bone sticking out of the riverbank in 1996.
A series of ongoing site excavations since 2008 has shown that the thousands of bones and hundreds of weapons preserved by the valley’s undisturbed environment were part of a large-scale battle 3,250 years ago.
The biggest mysteries that researchers aim to uncover are why the battle occurred and who fought in it. These are questions that they are now one step closer to answering.
ozens of bronze and flint arrowheads recovered from the Tollense Valley are revealing details about the able-bodied warriors who fought in the Bronze Age battle.
The research team analyzed and compared the arrowheads, some of which were still embedded in the remains of the fallen. While many of these weapons were locally produced, some bearing different shapes came from a region that now includes modern Bavaria and Moravia.
The outliers’ presence suggests that a southern army clashed with local tribes in the valley, and researchers suspect the conflict began at a key landmark along the river.
Back to the future
Scientists are harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to detect hidden archaeological sites buried below the sand of the sprawling Rub‘ al-Khali desert.
The desert spans 250,000 square miles (650,000 square kilometers) on the Arabian Peninsula, and its name translates to “the Empty Quarter” in English. To unravel the secrets of the desolate terrain, researchers are combining machine learning with a satellite imagery technique that uses radio waves to spot objects that may be concealed beneath surfaces.
The technology will be tested in October when excavations assess whether predicted structures are present at the Saruq Al Hadid complex in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Separately, an AI-assisted analysis uncovered a trove of ancient symbols in Peru’s Nazca Desert, nearly doubling the number of known geoglyphs, or stone and gravel arranged into giant shapes that depict animals, humans and geometric designs.
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Look of the Week: Forget the naked dress, Kendall Jenner makes the case for underwear as outerwear
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On Monday, Kendall Jenner stepped out onto the L’Oreal Paris womenswear runway in a scarlet red Mugler gown that might have looked familiar to anyone with a sharp memory of 1999.
The front of the dress was slashed open across Jenner’s right shoulder, exposing a matching denier bra. The peekaboo moment conjured up memories of another example of fashionable flashing: Lil’ Kim’s purple embellished jumpsuit at the VMAs 26 years earlier. On the red carpet, Kim’s left breast was almost entirely revealed by an asymmetrical cut — a mirror image of Jenner’s neckline — save for a matching purple nipple pasty.
Jenner’s Mugler moment was just the latest example of a resurging tendency for underwear as outerwear. At the Nensi Dojaka runway show in London earlier this month, boxy blazers were shrugged over strappy bras while paneled bustiers in sheer fabric were paired with capri trousers and reimagined as going out tops. Brasseries were even left exposed to the elements at Erdem — a departure for a house beloved by both British acting royalty (Kristen Scott Thomas) and actual royalty (the Duchess of Cambridge). Dolce & Gabbana got the memo, too, showing satin corsets, garter belts and Madonna-esque cone bras at Milan Fashion Week on Saturday. Florence Pugh even wore one of the label’s risque designs in her first British Vogue cover last week — the circle neckline of her puff-shouldered black dress scooping just above the belly button, acting as a full-frontal frame for her bra.
But the trend extends beyond just the runways. During the first performance of her “Short n’ Sweet” tour on Monday, singer Sabrina Carpenter took to the stage in a custom Victoria’s Secret bodysuit and stockings. Hand-adorned with over 150,000 crystals, the strapless pink lace-trimmed leotard took over 140 hours to make. On Monday,YouTube star and singer Jojo Siwa inverted the fad by donning a codpiece for a headline-grabbing cover shoot with LadyGunn magazine. The 15th century undergarment was bedazzled with flesh-colored gemstones.
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You can now order your Spirit Halloween costume on Uber Eats
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Uber is cashing in on spooky season.
The ridehailing company will now deliver costumes, makeup, and even decorations from Spirit Halloween, the largest Halloween retailer in North America, Uber announced in a press release Friday.
Big-box retailers are getting into Halloween earlier and earlier, suggesting American consumers continue spending on the October holiday even as they pull back from other discretionary purchases.
Customers in the US and Canada can buy their Chipotle burrito costume for the same price as in store, but without having to visit the seasonal Halloween store that pops up in abandoned storefronts every year, Uber said. Of course, there will still be the fees associated with Uber Eats delivery.
Spirit Halloween has 1,525 locations.
“The holiday season officially kicks off this time of year, and households across the country are looking to on-demand delivery to get what’s needed—now,” said Beryl Sanders, director of US grocery and retail partnerships at Uber, in a statement.
Since the pandemic, different types of retailers have partnered with Uber to deliver their goods – such as Olive Garden for its breadsticks and pasta. Uber Eats has also partnered with Big Lots, Lowe’s, Michael’s and Party City for on-demand delivery.
Uber and its competitors have also experimented with robot deliveries, though those have not fully taken off in the US market.
7 simple secrets to eating the Mediterranean way
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What if “diet” wasn’t a dirty word?
During Suzy Karadsheh’s childhood in Port Said, Egypt, diet culture was nonexistent.
“My parents emphasized joy at the table, rather than anything else,” Karadsheh said. “I grew up with Mediterranean lifestyle principles that celebrate eating with the seasons, eating mostly whole foods and above all else, sharing.”
But when Karadsheh moved to the United States at age 16, she witnessed people doing detoxes or restricting certain food groups or ingredients. Surrounded by that narrative and an abundance of new foods in her college dining hall, she says she “gained the freshman 31 instead of the freshman 15.” When she returned home to Egypt that summer, “I eased back into eating the Mediterranean food that I grew up with. During the span of about two months, I shed all of that weight without thinking I was ever on a diet.”
To help invite joy back to the table for others — and to keep her family’s culinary heritage alive for her two daughters (now 14 and 22) — Atlanta-based Karadsheh launched The Mediterranean Dish food blog 10 years ago. Quickly, her table started getting filled with more than just her friends and family.
“I started receiving emails from folks whose doctors had prescribed the Mediterranean diet and were seeking approachable recipes,” Karadsheh said. The plant-based eating lifestyle, often rated the world’s best diet, can reduce the risk for diabetes, high cholesterol, dementia, memory loss and depression, according to research. What’s more, the meal plan has been linked to stronger bones, a healthier heart and longer life.
Preparing meals the Mediterranean way, according to Karadsheh, can help you “eat well and live joyfully. To us, ‘diet’ doesn’t mean a list of ‘eat this’ and ‘don’t eat that.’” Instead of omission, Karadsheh focuses on abundance, asking herself, “what can I add to my life through this way of living? More whole foods, vegetables, grains, legumes? Naturally, when you add these good-for-you ingredients, you eat less of what’s not as health-promoting,” she told CNN.
7 simple secrets to eating the Mediterranean way
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What if “diet” wasn’t a dirty word?
During Suzy Karadsheh’s childhood in Port Said, Egypt, diet culture was nonexistent.
“My parents emphasized joy at the table, rather than anything else,” Karadsheh said. “I grew up with Mediterranean lifestyle principles that celebrate eating with the seasons, eating mostly whole foods and above all else, sharing.”
But when Karadsheh moved to the United States at age 16, she witnessed people doing detoxes or restricting certain food groups or ingredients. Surrounded by that narrative and an abundance of new foods in her college dining hall, she says she “gained the freshman 31 instead of the freshman 15.” When she returned home to Egypt that summer, “I eased back into eating the Mediterranean food that I grew up with. During the span of about two months, I shed all of that weight without thinking I was ever on a diet.”
To help invite joy back to the table for others — and to keep her family’s culinary heritage alive for her two daughters (now 14 and 22) — Atlanta-based Karadsheh launched The Mediterranean Dish food blog 10 years ago. Quickly, her table started getting filled with more than just her friends and family.
“I started receiving emails from folks whose doctors had prescribed the Mediterranean diet and were seeking approachable recipes,” Karadsheh said. The plant-based eating lifestyle, often rated the world’s best diet, can reduce the risk for diabetes, high cholesterol, dementia, memory loss and depression, according to research. What’s more, the meal plan has been linked to stronger bones, a healthier heart and longer life.
Preparing meals the Mediterranean way, according to Karadsheh, can help you “eat well and live joyfully. To us, ‘diet’ doesn’t mean a list of ‘eat this’ and ‘don’t eat that.’” Instead of omission, Karadsheh focuses on abundance, asking herself, “what can I add to my life through this way of living? More whole foods, vegetables, grains, legumes? Naturally, when you add these good-for-you ingredients, you eat less of what’s not as health-promoting,” she told CNN.
Sea robins are fish with ‘the wings of a bird and multiple legs like a crab’
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Some types of sea robins, a peculiar bottom-dwelling ocean fish, use taste bud-covered legs to sense and dig up prey along the seafloor, according to new research.
Sea robins are so adept at rooting out prey as they walk along the ocean floor on their six leglike appendages that other fish follow them around in the hope of snagging some freshly uncovered prey themselves, said the authors of two new studies published Thursday in the journal Current Biology.
David Kingsley, coauthor of both studies, first came across the fish in the summer of 2016 after giving a seminar at the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. Kingsley is the Rudy J. and Daphne Donohue Munzer Professor in the department of developmental biology at Stanford University’s School of Medicine.
Before leaving to catch a flight, Kingsley stopped at a small public aquarium, where he spied sea robins and their delicate fins, which resemble the feathery wings of a bird, as well as leglike appendages.
“The sea robins on display completely spun my head around because they had the body of a fish, the wings of a bird, and multiple legs like a crab,” Kingsley said in an email.
“I’d never seen a fish that looked like it was made of body parts from many different types of animals.”
Kingsley and his colleagues decided to study sea robins in a lab setting, uncovering a wealth of surprises, including the differences between sea robin species and the genetics responsible for their unusual traits, such as leglike fins that have evolved so that they largely function as sensory organs.
The findings of the study team’s new research show how evolution leads to complex adaptations in specific environments, such as the ability of sea robins to be able to “taste” prey using their quickly scurrying and highly sensitive appendages.
You can now order your Spirit Halloween costume on Uber Eats
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Uber is cashing in on spooky season.
The ridehailing company will now deliver costumes, makeup, and even decorations from Spirit Halloween, the largest Halloween retailer in North America, Uber announced in a press release Friday.
Big-box retailers are getting into Halloween earlier and earlier, suggesting American consumers continue spending on the October holiday even as they pull back from other discretionary purchases.
Customers in the US and Canada can buy their Chipotle burrito costume for the same price as in store, but without having to visit the seasonal Halloween store that pops up in abandoned storefronts every year, Uber said. Of course, there will still be the fees associated with Uber Eats delivery.
Spirit Halloween has 1,525 locations.
“The holiday season officially kicks off this time of year, and households across the country are looking to on-demand delivery to get what’s needed—now,” said Beryl Sanders, director of US grocery and retail partnerships at Uber, in a statement.
Since the pandemic, different types of retailers have partnered with Uber to deliver their goods – such as Olive Garden for its breadsticks and pasta. Uber Eats has also partnered with Big Lots, Lowe’s, Michael’s and Party City for on-demand delivery.
Uber and its competitors have also experimented with robot deliveries, though those have not fully taken off in the US market.
You can now order your Spirit Halloween costume on Uber Eats
<a href=https://kr08.cc>kraken магазин</a>
Uber is cashing in on spooky season.
The ridehailing company will now deliver costumes, makeup, and even decorations from Spirit Halloween, the largest Halloween retailer in North America, Uber announced in a press release Friday.
Big-box retailers are getting into Halloween earlier and earlier, suggesting American consumers continue spending on the October holiday even as they pull back from other discretionary purchases.
Customers in the US and Canada can buy their Chipotle burrito costume for the same price as in store, but without having to visit the seasonal Halloween store that pops up in abandoned storefronts every year, Uber said. Of course, there will still be the fees associated with Uber Eats delivery.
Spirit Halloween has 1,525 locations.
“The holiday season officially kicks off this time of year, and households across the country are looking to on-demand delivery to get what’s needed—now,” said Beryl Sanders, director of US grocery and retail partnerships at Uber, in a statement.
Since the pandemic, different types of retailers have partnered with Uber to deliver their goods – such as Olive Garden for its breadsticks and pasta. Uber Eats has also partnered with Big Lots, Lowe’s, Michael’s and Party City for on-demand delivery.
Uber and its competitors have also experimented with robot deliveries, though those have not fully taken off in the US market.
Sea robins are fish with ‘the wings of a bird and multiple legs like a crab’
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Some types of sea robins, a peculiar bottom-dwelling ocean fish, use taste bud-covered legs to sense and dig up prey along the seafloor, according to new research.
Sea robins are so adept at rooting out prey as they walk along the ocean floor on their six leglike appendages that other fish follow them around in the hope of snagging some freshly uncovered prey themselves, said the authors of two new studies published Thursday in the journal Current Biology.
David Kingsley, coauthor of both studies, first came across the fish in the summer of 2016 after giving a seminar at the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. Kingsley is the Rudy J. and Daphne Donohue Munzer Professor in the department of developmental biology at Stanford University’s School of Medicine.
Before leaving to catch a flight, Kingsley stopped at a small public aquarium, where he spied sea robins and their delicate fins, which resemble the feathery wings of a bird, as well as leglike appendages.
“The sea robins on display completely spun my head around because they had the body of a fish, the wings of a bird, and multiple legs like a crab,” Kingsley said in an email.
“I’d never seen a fish that looked like it was made of body parts from many different types of animals.”
Kingsley and his colleagues decided to study sea robins in a lab setting, uncovering a wealth of surprises, including the differences between sea robin species and the genetics responsible for their unusual traits, such as leglike fins that have evolved so that they largely function as sensory organs.
The findings of the study team’s new research show how evolution leads to complex adaptations in specific environments, such as the ability of sea robins to be able to “taste” prey using their quickly scurrying and highly sensitive appendages.
7 simple secrets to eating the Mediterranean way
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What if “diet” wasn’t a dirty word?
During Suzy Karadsheh’s childhood in Port Said, Egypt, diet culture was nonexistent.
“My parents emphasized joy at the table, rather than anything else,” Karadsheh said. “I grew up with Mediterranean lifestyle principles that celebrate eating with the seasons, eating mostly whole foods and above all else, sharing.”
But when Karadsheh moved to the United States at age 16, she witnessed people doing detoxes or restricting certain food groups or ingredients. Surrounded by that narrative and an abundance of new foods in her college dining hall, she says she “gained the freshman 31 instead of the freshman 15.” When she returned home to Egypt that summer, “I eased back into eating the Mediterranean food that I grew up with. During the span of about two months, I shed all of that weight without thinking I was ever on a diet.”
To help invite joy back to the table for others — and to keep her family’s culinary heritage alive for her two daughters (now 14 and 22) — Atlanta-based Karadsheh launched The Mediterranean Dish food blog 10 years ago. Quickly, her table started getting filled with more than just her friends and family.
“I started receiving emails from folks whose doctors had prescribed the Mediterranean diet and were seeking approachable recipes,” Karadsheh said. The plant-based eating lifestyle, often rated the world’s best diet, can reduce the risk for diabetes, high cholesterol, dementia, memory loss and depression, according to research. What’s more, the meal plan has been linked to stronger bones, a healthier heart and longer life.
Preparing meals the Mediterranean way, according to Karadsheh, can help you “eat well and live joyfully. To us, ‘diet’ doesn’t mean a list of ‘eat this’ and ‘don’t eat that.’” Instead of omission, Karadsheh focuses on abundance, asking herself, “what can I add to my life through this way of living? More whole foods, vegetables, grains, legumes? Naturally, when you add these good-for-you ingredients, you eat less of what’s not as health-promoting,” she told CNN.
Automatic takeoffs are coming for passenger jets and they’re going to redraw the map of the sky
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In late 1965, at what’s now London Heathrow airport, a commercial flight coming from Paris made history by being the first to land automatically.
The plane – A Trident 1C operated by BEA, which would later become British Airways – was equipped with a newly developed extension of the autopilot (a system to help guide the plane’s path without manual control) known as “autoland.”
Today, automatic landing systems are installed on most commercial aircraft and improve the safety of landings in difficult weather or poor visibility.
Now, nearly 60 years later, the world’s third largest aircraft manufacturer, Brazil’s Embraer, is introducing a similar technology, but for takeoffs.
Called “E2 Enhanced Take Off System,” after the family of aircraft it’s designed for, the technology would not only improve safety by reducing pilot workload, but it would also improve range and takeoff weight, allowing the planes that use it to travel farther, according to Embraer.
“The system is better than the pilots,” says Patrice London, principal performance engineer at Embraer, who has worked on the project for over a decade. ”That’s because it performs in the same way all the time. If you do 1,000 takeoffs, you will get 1,000 of exactly the same takeoff.”
Embraer, London adds, has already started flight testing, with the aim to get it approved by aviation authorities in 2025, before introducing it from select airports.
You can now order your Spirit Halloween costume on Uber Eats
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Uber is cashing in on spooky season.
The ridehailing company will now deliver costumes, makeup, and even decorations from Spirit Halloween, the largest Halloween retailer in North America, Uber announced in a press release Friday.
Big-box retailers are getting into Halloween earlier and earlier, suggesting American consumers continue spending on the October holiday even as they pull back from other discretionary purchases.
Customers in the US and Canada can buy their Chipotle burrito costume for the same price as in store, but without having to visit the seasonal Halloween store that pops up in abandoned storefronts every year, Uber said. Of course, there will still be the fees associated with Uber Eats delivery.
Spirit Halloween has 1,525 locations.
“The holiday season officially kicks off this time of year, and households across the country are looking to on-demand delivery to get what’s needed—now,” said Beryl Sanders, director of US grocery and retail partnerships at Uber, in a statement.
Since the pandemic, different types of retailers have partnered with Uber to deliver their goods – such as Olive Garden for its breadsticks and pasta. Uber Eats has also partnered with Big Lots, Lowe’s, Michael’s and Party City for on-demand delivery.
Uber and its competitors have also experimented with robot deliveries, though those have not fully taken off in the US market.
Решение судопроизводства по гражданским и уголовным делам, органов военной прокуратуры часто принимается на основании выводов судебной пожарно-технической экспертизы.
Моя экспертная помощь поможет вам определить места возникновения первоначального горения (очага, направления распространения горения, особенностей), механизма возникновения и развития горения, а также выявить обстоятельства возгорания, чтобы суд смог вынести правильное решение по делу: в получении компенсации за причиненный вам вред, в доказательстве непричастности к возгоранию и пр.
Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
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A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.
Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.
To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.
“I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.
Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.
Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.
The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.
Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
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A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.
Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.
To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.
“I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.
Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.
Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.
The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.
Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
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A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.
Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.
To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.
“I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.
Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.
Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.
The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.
Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
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A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.
Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.
To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.
“I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.
Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.
Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.
The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.
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Colorful auroras could be visible in areas of the United States such as Alabama and Northern California — much farther south than they typically appear — on Thursday evening due to a powerful solar flare and coronal mass ejection released from the sun, according to the National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
The severe solar storm, classified as a level 4 on a scale from 1 to 5, also could disrupt communications, the power grid and satellite operations, according to officials at the center.
The storm is expected to reach Earth between early morning and 12 p.m. ET Thursday, with the potential to last through Friday.
The intensity and full characteristics of the storm, moving toward Earth at more than 2.5 million miles per hour (about 4 million kilometers per hour), won’t be known until it reaches the Deep Space Climate Observatory and the Advanced Composition Explorer satellites orbiting 1 million miles from Earth.
The satellites will measure the speed and magnetic intensity of the storm, which is expected to arrive at Earth 15 to 30 minutes after reaching the space observatories, said Shawn Dahl, service coordinator for the Space Weather Prediction Center, at a news briefing Wednesday.
A series of the most intense type of solar flares, known as X-class flares, have released from the sun this week. The flares also coincided with coronal mass ejections on Tuesday.
Coronal mass ejections are large clouds of ionized gas called plasma and magnetic fields that erupt from the sun’s outer atmosphere. When these outbursts are directed at Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms, or major disturbances of Earth’s magnetic field.
“Geomagnetic storms can impact infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth’s surface,” according to the Space Weather Prediction Center.
As a result, the center has notified the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the North American power grid and satellite operators to prepare for disruptions, especially given the amount of preparations and expected relief efforts for Hurricane Milton, Dahl said.
Historically, G4 storms are common during a solar cycle, but G5, or extreme geomagnetic storms such the one that occurred on May 10, are incredibly rare, Dahl said. This new storm has a 25% chance of becoming a G5, he said.
<img alt="Станислав Кондрашов" id="Станислав Кондрашов" longdesc="Станислав Кондрашов" src="https://dimonvideo.ru/files/screens.dimonvideo.ru/320/blog/blogi/stanislav-kondrashov-galstuk-5_3011.jpg" style="border-style:solid; border-width:0px; float:left; height:100px; margin:0px; width:129px" title="Станислав Кондрашов" />
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The WNBA is having a real moment - Caitlin Clark and the league’s historic season by the numbers
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When many of us hear the “Fall Classic,” we automatically think of baseball’s World Series. I’m not sure that will be the case for future generations.
Yes, I’m being somewhat provocative with that line, but the WNBA Finals have arrived on the heels of what can only be described as a historic season for the league. Across a metric of statistics, it’s clear that America’s interest in the WNBA is at the highest point this century in large part because of Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark.
Let’s start simple: Google searches. They’ve been higher this WNBA season, starting with the draft in April, than at any point since we’ve had data (2004). Searches for the WNBA are up over 300% compared to last season, up over 850% compared to five seasons ago, and have risen nearly 1,400% from a decade ago.
That is, the WNBA has been rising, and this year it really took off.
This interest has translated into revenue for the league. Attendance is up a staggering 48% from 2023. There wasn’t a single team with an average regular season home attendance of five figures (10,000+) in 2023. This season, there were six.
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We see the same pattern in merchandise. Sales are up 600% from last year. This includes the boost from rookie sensations Clark, who had the best-selling jersey, and Angel Reese of the Chicago Sky, who had the second-best-selling jersey.
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When my friends and I walked into homeroom on the first day of school this year, my teacher told all of us to put our phones in a black plastic box on an old desk by the classroom door.
Handing over our phones during class is an official school policy, and my teachers always make this announcement at the beginning of the school year. But teachers would usually forget about the box by third period on the first day, never to be mentioned again by the second day of school. This year, however, the policy stuck that entire first day — and every day since.
I asked my Latin teacher why the school was suddenly getting so strict on phones. It turns out that over the summer most of the teachers had read social psychologist Jonathan Haidt’s book “The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness.”
Haidt, the Thomas Cooley Professor of Ehtical Leadership at New York University Stern School of Business, argues that a phone-based childhood leads to mentally unhealthy kids who are unprepared for life and, in my Latin teacher’s words, it “really freaked us out.” Teachers were serious about taking our phones now.
It’s not just causing trouble at my school. Some 72% of public high school teachers in the United States say that cell phone distraction among their students is a major problem, according to a study published by the Pew Research Center in April. In high schools that already have cell phone policies, 60% of teachers say that the policies are very or somewhat difficult to enforce, the same study reported.
Several states have passed laws attempting to restrict cell phone use in schools, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom recently signed legislation requiring school districts to regulate cell phone use. At least seven of the 20 largest school districts in the nation have either banned phones during the school day or plan to do so.
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