
4月5日15:00至22:30
市场概述:周一(4月5日)欧市盘中,市场风险情绪爆发,华尔街大幅上涨,因投资者消化上周强劲的非农就业报告,美国三大股指涨幅都超过1%。风险情绪的升温,可能成为美元大跌原因,美元最低跌至92.54。欧元冲破1.18;美元/日元 跌破110;金价震荡承压……
消息面来看,美国最新的经济数据显示,美国3月ISM非制造业PMI升至63.7,有评论指出,最新迹象表明,在增加疫苗接种和大规模财政刺激措施的推动下,美国经济正在蓬勃发展。
美国供应管理协会(ISM)周一公布,上月ISM非制造业PMI反弹至63.7,这也得益于天气变暖,为该调查历史上的最高水平。调查还表明,公共卫生状况的大幅改善和白宫1.9万亿美元的新冠大流行援助计划为经济提供了强大的推动力。
Forexlive称,这是一个漂亮的数字,创历史新高。新订单超过了预期。市场的反应一直很一般,或许是因为早前一些强劲的3月数据就预示了这一点。
无论如何,美国的重新开放进展顺利。这份报告是2008年才开始发布的,但ISM指出,使用一些分类指数,它可以追溯到1997年,这仍将是最好的解读。
针对拜登逾2万亿美元基建计划,美国共和党参议员Blunt表示,会支持“专注(基建)的”基建法案。基础设施支出只是拜登计划的一小部分。共和党人可以支持投入6150亿美元用于基建支出。
LPL Financial的首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick说,近期历史表明,本月股市可能继续上涨,标普500指数4月平均涨幅为过去20年来最高。
Jefferies的经济学家估计,拜登的基础设施计划总体上将使他们对2022年美国国内生产总值增长5.2%的预期提高0.5至1个百分点。但基建支出增加可能会提振工业和材料类股,这两大板块最近几个月已经因经济反弹押注而获益。
黄金:尽管美元大跌,但是金价仍然震荡承压,Newsom Analysis主席Darin Newsom认为,金价目前只是短期修正反弹,上方关注1756美元/盎司的阻力水平。对黄金来说,美元的长期上行趋势是个很大的阻力。
分析指出,美元今天回落,但是在疫苗接种紧张良好,以及拜登的大规模刺激方案的提振,美国经济复苏势头势必更加强劲,这也有利于美元的走势。
Futurestechs技术分析师Clive Lambert则表示,尽管黄金的看空情绪还在继续,但已经有所好转了。“在金价走高到1754美元/盎司上方后,就显现出双底信号。”
日内焦点、风向标:
美股走势
主要货币走势分析:
欧元:周一欧市盘中,欧元/美元有所反弹,技术面,欧元/美元可能在1.17-1.1830区间内交易一段时间。
英镑(1.3821, -0.0001, -0.01%):周一欧市盘中,英镑/美元温和走高,技术面,英镑/美元在继续上涨建立头寸之前谨慎的做法是等待一些强劲的后续买盘。
日元:周一欧市盘中,美元/日元显著回落,技术面,美元/日元下行支撑在109.85、108.4等。

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