人民币汇率近期波动属正常健康调整
自去年6月初以来,境内人民币对美元汇率震荡走高。到今年2月底,人民币汇率较去年5月底累计升值10%。进入3月,人民币汇率走低,重回6.50时代,抹去了年内涨幅。
前期有人曾预测年内人民币有可能升破6。这是一种典型的适应性预期,它忽视了两个问题:一是影响汇率升贬值的因素是同时存在的,且影响因素此消彼长,必然是涨多了会跌、跌多了会涨;二是汇率升得快不等于升值压力大、升值预期强,恰恰是汇率有弹性,有助于及时释放市场压力、避免预期积累。当时,笔者就表示今年人民币汇率或走得没有大家预期的那么强。
实际上,自年初进入6.40时代后,1月6日至2月底,人民币汇率在6.43到6.50区间窄幅波动。进入3月以后,围绕6.50上下波动。一季度,人民币汇率中间价最多升值1.3%,低于去年同期最大1.7%的升幅。去年四季度,市场预期总体偏升值方向,今年头两个月升贬值预期交替出现,3月转向偏贬值方向,但升贬值预期都不太强烈。
近期人民币汇率回落,一是欧洲疫情出现第三波传染,市场避险情绪重新抬头;二是美国通胀预期上升,美债收益率上行,中美债收益率差收敛;三是疫苗接种加新刺激计划,提振美国经济复苏预期,美元指数(92.2900, -0.0320, -0.03%)不跌反涨;四是货币提前紧缩预期抬头,以美股为代表的风险资产价格剧烈震荡,新兴市场重现资本外流;五是大国博弈依然激烈,凸显国际环境日趋复杂严峻。
这再次印证了笔者的观点,即汇率是相对价格,研判汇率走势不仅要看本国还要看海外会发生什么。中国在疫情防控常态化的前提下,经济社会活动正在进一步加快恢复,只是外部因素发生了一些变化。但这仍属于健康、正常的调整,反映人民币汇率步入了双向波动的新常态。
双向波动有助于缓解持续单边升值给国内企业造成的财务压力。去年6月至今年2月,人民币汇率中间价均值环比上涨。以月度中间价均值衡量的企业蒙受的潜在最大汇兑损失达到4.9%。随着今年2月中间价均值环比涨幅大幅收窄,并在3月首次录得环比下跌,今年一季度的潜在汇兑损失收敛至0.7%。
现在市场担心美债收益率上行引发的“缩减恐慌”,对新兴市场造成的资本流动冲击可能进一步蔓延。但预计中国或如2013年美联储释放量宽退出预期引发的“缩减恐慌”之初一样,会被视为好的新兴市场,受到的影响有限。因为自2015年“8·11”汇改以来,经历了藏汇于民和债务偿还的集中调整后,中国民间货币错配有较大改善。到去年底,不含储备资产的对外净负债1.21万亿美元,较2015年6月底减少了49%。这增强了中国对外经济部门韧性,提高了境内外汇市场参与者对汇率波动的适应性和容忍度。
3月,境内银行间市场日均即期询价成交量达到374亿美元,环比增长14%,或反映当月境内外汇供大于求缺口有所扩大。同时,今年前2个月,国际收支口径货物和服务顺差合计865亿美元,去年同期为逆差377亿美元;非金融部门跨境直接投资净流入107亿美元,同比增长1.73倍。这表明中国基础国际收支交易依然表现强劲,为抗外部冲击风险提供了较厚的安全垫。
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