市场概述:周二(4月6日)欧市盘中,全球市场风险情绪温和,欧洲股市全线走高,美国股市小幅回落,汇市方面,在美债收益率再度下挫之际,美元跌至两周低位92.42;欧元(1.1876, 0.0004, 0.03%)/美元最高触及1.1846;美元/日元跌至109.66,现货黄金大幅反弹,冲至1740上方。
消息面来看,IMF:料全球GDP在2020年录得下滑后将创40年来最大增幅。预计今年全球GDP增速为6%,中国GDP增速为8.4%。
在美国强劲反弹的带动下,IMF 2021年的预测将标志着自1976年以来最快的全球增长速度。国际货币基金组织将美国2021年经济增长预期上调1.3%,上调幅度为6.4%,这是自上世纪80年代初以来最快的增速;大多数其他经济体也看到了提振。
不同速度的复苏反映了疫苗推广、政策支持程度和结构性因素的差异。IMF指出,经济前景存在高度不确定性,这在很大程度上取决于冠状病毒疫苗推广的成功。
黄金:在美元、美债收益率回落之际,金价再度大幅反弹,最高1744.22美元/盎司,创下两周以来最高水平。技术面来看,现货黄金处于自1721美元开启的上行iii浪中,上方阻力位看向38.2%目标位1744美元和61.8%目标位1759美元。
Incrementum AG基金经理Ronald-Peter Stoeferle表示,眼下或许在投资组合中增持黄金的好时机,金价不太可能再大跌了。
Axi首席全球市场策略师Stephen Innes表示,黄金市场形成了双底形态,但要突破1750美元/盎司关口才能真正走高。“黄金市场没能延续上周的回升状态,因为美国非农数据利好风险情绪。”
日内焦点、风向标:
IMF世界经济展望报告
主要货币走势分析:
欧元:周二欧市盘中,欧元/美元持续上涨,技术面,欧元/美元在近期内处于中性至看涨状态。100SMA维持其看跌势头,在1.1840水平提供动态阻力。若稳步上涨突破这一水平将可能在后续交易时段中为进一步上涨至1.1940水平打开大门。
英镑(1.3838, 0.0016, 0.12%):周二欧市盘中,英镑/美元持续下跌,技术面,英镑/美元下行支撑在1.3838、1.3776、1.3738,上行阻力位1.3939、1.3976、1.4039。
日元:周二欧市盘中,美元/日元显著回落,技术面,美元/日元任何随后的下跌都更有可能吸引一些逢低买盘,使得其下行限于此前突破的阻力现为支撑的109.40-35区域。
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