美国大规模经济刺激带来的通胀、债务和金融稳定风险等危机成本有可能向全球各国转嫁，中国等新兴市场经济体面临被“薅羊毛”的可能性。
有观点认为，为防止外汇储备缩水，不被“薅羊毛”，应该减持美国国债，买入黄金、大宗商品等资源品，或者将外汇储备用于国内。
首先，考虑到仓储容量、价格波动、收益率、投资专业性等因素，外汇储备不宜大量购买资源品；其次，如果外汇储备用于国内等同于投放基础货币，将打乱我国货币政策节奏；最后，美元仍是最重要的国际结算货币和储备货币，我国需要保有适当的美元资产用于参与世界经济和金融活动。
政策建议：外汇储备投资继续坚持安全性、流动性和收益性，在此基础上适度优化资产配置结构。要避免被“薅羊毛”，就必须实现我国对外资产更大比例的市场化配置，“藏汇于民”。 同时，扩大内需、增加汇率弹性，保持国际收支大体平衡，外汇储备规模基本稳定，促进市场主体对外投资稳步增长。
美国大规模经济刺激的成本
可能向全球各国转嫁
在美国大规模经济刺激，以及新冠疫苗广泛接种的推动下，美国经济的复苏速度将超过欧洲、日本等发达经济体。美国经济加速复苏对全球经济能起到很大拉动作用，但大规模经济刺激带来的通胀、债务和金融稳定风险也不容忽视。
通胀压力。大规模财政刺激可能会造成美国短期通胀上升，但不会形成较为恶性的通货膨胀。美联储大概率不会对目前通胀率上升做出反应，经济和就业持续改善是当前主要目标。美国消费复苏带动全球商品需求，原油等大宗商价格上涨，通胀压力在一定程度上由世界各国分担。
债务风险。美国大规模刺激方案的背后，必然伴随着巨大的财政赤字和债务压力。目前，美债总额已经突破28万亿，高出GDP约30%，且还在不断增加。有观点认为，美国利用美元霸权地位，一边“无限量化宽松”印钞，一边“增发美债”借款，通过“左手倒右手”的方式转嫁危机成本，收割全球财富。
全球金融稳定风险。国际货币基金组织警告全球金融市场与实体经济脱节仍在延续。疫情以来，美国财政货币“大放水”，过剩的流动性流向房地产和全球金融市场，推高了金融资产价格。一旦投资者重新评估全球经济增长前景或政策展望，全球资产价格或将面临回调风险。
减持美债并非避免被“薅羊毛”良策
鉴于美国巨额的财政赤字和不断扩大的国际收支逆差，美元将呈现出短期升值、长期贬值的趋势。中国等新兴市场经济体可能被美国“薅羊毛”，主要通过两种方式：
一是全球资本回流。美国经济加速复苏，通货膨胀回升，前一阶段从中国获利的全球外资因此大量流出。
应对此种被美国“薅羊毛”的最佳方式，是保持足够的汇率弹性，让汇率充分发挥稳定器的作用。→详情
二是外汇储备缩水。如果美元贬值，将使得大量持有美元和美元资产的国家财富缩水。
有观点认为，为防止美国通过美元贬值“薅羊毛”，我国应该抛售美国国债，减持美元资产，在全球大规模买入黄金、石油、农产品等资源品。还有观点认为可以将外汇储备用于国内，例如转借国内社会保障基金等。
首先，投资黄金、大宗商品等资源品需综合考虑市场容量、仓储运输、价格波动、流动性、成本和收益等因素。
从历史数据来看，投资大宗商品的回报率和风险水平并不优于投资金融产品，也不符合我国外汇储备投资的“安全、流动、收益”的三原则。
如果我国大规模采购大宗商品，会打破市场的供需平衡，迅速推高价格，可能推动输入型通胀加剧。未来如果投资有回报，意味着大宗商品价格继续上涨，我国是全球最大的大宗商品消费国和进口国，为这些投资回报买单的主要还是中国企业和居民。
因此，外汇储备不适宜用于大规模购买资源品。资源品购买、储存和投资更适合专业的市场主体进行，所需外汇通过市场化方式获得，如果外汇市场出现供需缺口，再考虑通过外汇储备进行调节。
其次，外汇储备是央行付出了等值的人民币(6.5410, 0.0015, 0.02%)负债（即外汇占款）形成的资产。
外汇储备如果用于国内等同于投放基础货币，因为拿到外汇的市场主体会再次将外汇换为人民币才能在国内使用，形成人民币的“二次投放”，造成大水漫灌，严重打乱我国的货币政策节奏。
外汇储备用于国内还将使得央行资产负债表出现重大缺口，影响央行货币政策的公信力，并引起人民币币值波动。
最后，近年外汇储备中的美元资产占比已经明显下降。
根据外管局公布的《国家外汇管理局年报（2019）》，在外汇储备货币结构中，美元占比从1995年的79%下降至2015年的58%，非美元货币同期从21%上升至42%。
在中美贸易摩擦和美国金融制裁风险的背景下，美元资产在我国外汇储备中的占比可能又进一步下降。
继续压降美元资产需充分权衡得失利弊。
其一，外汇储备最重要的是确保安全性和流动性，同时尽可能地提高储备资产收益率。
目前，国际上确实面临“资产荒”问题，低风险、高流动性、高收益的优质资产不足。投资美国国债虽然存在风险，但美国国债相对于欧洲、日本、英国和新兴市场国家的资产，仍然是相对更加安全、流动性更好，同时投资回报率更高的资产。
其二，在外汇市场高度敏感的情况下，如果我国在美国二级市场抛售美元国债，会使得美元汇率下跌，进一步加深我国外汇储备剩余美元资产的汇率风险。抛售美元资产除了带来贬值损失外，还可能进一步恶化中美两国的双边关系。
其三，美国拥有最大的金融市场，美元是最重要的国际结算货币和储备货币，在国际货币体系中仍将在相当长的时间里起着主导作用。短期内，欧元(1.1875, 0.0003, 0.03%)、日元、人民币都难以撼动美元“霸权地位”。
我国需要保有适当的美元资产用于参与世界经济金融活动。美元在一定时期内恐仍是我国外汇储备的首选币种，美元资产所占比例仍将维持在较高水平。
通过市场化配置外汇资产以
分散风险
外汇储备投资仍应坚持安全性、流动性和收益性，在此基础上适度优化资产配置结构。
我国外汇储备规模目前适度，对应的投资应坚持外汇储备管理的初心和使命，也就是安全性、流动性和收益性。要求外汇储备投资追求更多的其他目标，既不利于外汇储备的经营管理，也很难实现其他目标。
从资产多元化角度出发，外汇储备资产结构可以适度调整，例如扩大对外股权投资，提高资产收益率。
拜登政府正在为大规模重建美国基础设施筹资，包括高速公路、铁路、电网等，外汇储备投资也可以通过适当方式参与其中。
在经济加速复苏和美债发行预期下，美债收益率再度上涨并突破1.76%，且仍有上升空间。
虽然美债收益率有限，但在美欧日等主要发达经济体接近零利率的背景下，美债收益率相对而言并不低，安全性和流动性最有保障。我国在合适的时点阶段性地增持美债也可以成为短期的投资策略。
要避免被“薅羊毛”，就必须实现我国对外资产更大比例的市场化配置，“藏汇于民”。
“藏汇于民”并不是市场“瓜分”外汇储备，而是让更多的市场主体通过市场方式获得外汇，并根据需要自主配置境外资产，这样更有利于发挥市场主体的长处。
市场主体分散的决策可以满足各自的不同需要，作出有利于自身的避险安排，在宏观上还可以分散风险。同时，在制裁和地缘政治风险突出的情况下，民间分散的对外投资目标更小、更隐蔽也更容易调整。
避免被“薅羊毛”还需要控制好增量，扩大内需、增加汇率弹性，保持国际收支大体平衡，外汇储备规模总体稳定，市场主体对外投资有序增长。
我国对外资产积累的主要来源是经常账户顺差，2005-2020年我国累计经常项目顺差达到3.5万亿美元。
短期来看，美国大规模刺激有利于中国出口，我国经常项目顺差可能会继续扩大，进而导致外汇储备被动增加，境外资产矛盾更加突出。
中国经济发展正处于结构调整的关键时期，要加快推动结构性改革、扩大内需，增强人民币汇率弹性，保持国际收支大体平衡。
这样，一方面可以保持外汇储备规模总体稳定，另一方面也有利于稳定市场主体的持汇意愿，有序开展对外投资。
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Life is Good — почему произошёл технический СКАМ проекта
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Компания «Life Is Good» позиционировала себя как финансово-консалтинговый проект. Она привлекала денежные активы от клиентов, формируя из них инвестиционные вклады, которые приносят пассивный доход от 20% годовых в валюте.
Официальный сайт компании — lifeisgood.company. Ценной информации на нем очень мало. В разделе «О компании» вместо рассказа о том, чем занимается компания, — общие фразы про финансовую независимость и благополучие клиентов, а также шесть рекламных роликов с известными людьми.
Данная компания создана в 2014 году. Зарегистрирована в государстве-офшоре Белиз, что находится в Центральной Америке. Соответственно, выданный там сертификат не имеет на территории России никакой юридической силы. Лицензия ЦБ РФ отсутствует.
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Далее работал в инвестиционной компании “Life Division”, которая до сих пор продолжает свою работу.
Также Роман активно ведёт блог в инстаграмме и на ютуб, темы всё те же — успешный успех, освободись от рабства, нужно только захотеть и т.д.
Участники делали ежемесячные взносы в счет стоимости будущей квартиры. Значительная часть средств шла организаторам компании, а все остальное делились между вышестоящими пайщиками.
Наступила стадия «критического дна», т.е. взносов от новичков поступало меньше, чем необходимо выплачивать более «старым» клиентам, основатели компании приостановили свою деятельность, а суммы, которые многие годы вносили пайщики, им просто не вернули.
Life Is Good позиционировала себя как европейская компания, но привлекала в основном Россиян. Кстати, официальный сайт Life is Good переведен сразу на 9 языков. Непонятно для чего это сделано, ведь компания работает только в России, Казахстане и Киргизии. Наверное, поэтому над переводом на английский язык здесь не стали заморачиваться. С первого взгляда видны грубые грамматические ошибки.
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Historical document appraiser and collector Seth Kaller spreads a broad sheet of paper across a desk. It’s in good enough condition that he can handle it, carefully, with clean, bare hands. There are just a few creases and tiny discolorations, even though it’s just a few weeks shy of 237 years old and has spent who knows how long inside a filing cabinet in North Carolina.
At the top of the first page are familiar words but in regular type instead of the sweeping Gothic script we’re used to seeing: “WE, the People …”
And the people will get a chance to bid for this copy of the US Constitution — the only of its type thought to be in private hands — at a sale by Brunk Auctions on Sept. 28 in Asheville, North Carolina.
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This copy was printed after the Constitutional Convention finished drafting the proposed framework of the nation’s government in 1787 and sent it to the Congress of the ineffective first American government under the Articles of Confederation, requesting they send it to the states to be ratified by the people.
It’s one of about 100 copies printed by the secretary of that Congress, Charles Thomson. Just eight are known to still exist and the other seven are publicly owned.
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“I only felt like I could say that because I was older,” she said.
“When I started acting, there was a lot of nudity – you were just expected to do it. When I was younger I played sexy characters, the girlfriend. As I’ve got older, that’s changed because I’m more successful and can choose the parts I want to play,” she said.
She praised the use of intimacy coordinators in film and television since the #MeToo movement, telling the magazine that “it’s a totally different landscape” now.
“Anything you’re not comfortable with is not going to happen. I’ve heard other actors that are like, ‘I loved it when there was no intimacy coordinator,’ but I definitely think it’s better,” she said.
Meet the artist transforming tennis balls into furniture
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In the last two years, tennis has taken over our closets (court-appropriate garb can be found everywhere from Skims to Miu Miu), our screens (who could forget Zendaya’s turn as the tennis protoge-turned-elite-coach Tashi Duncan in “Challengers”) and now — our living rooms.
At least that is the hope of Belgian eco-designer Mathilde Wittock, who fashions bespoke furniture from discarded tennis balls. Wittock’s sleek, modernist chaise longues are entirely cushionless — save for the padding of 500 precisely arranged tennis balls. Her one meter-long benches are similarly sparse, with some 270 balls being both stylish and structurally substantial.
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“It takes around 24 different manufacturing steps to (make) a tennis ball, which is around five days. Then it has such a short lifespan,” Wittock told CNN in a video call from Brussels. “I was looking into tennis balls because I played tennis myself, so I know there is a lot of waste.”
Around 300 million tennis balls are produced each year — and almost all of them end up in landfills, taking over 400 years to decompose. The US Open, which ended at the weekend, goes through around 70,000 each year, with Wimbledon not far behind at 55,000. Wittock estimates the lifecycle of a ball stands at just nine games, depending on the level of tennis being played. “Even if they are contained in their box, if the box has been opened the gas inside the tennis balls will be released over time,” she said. “(Eventually) they will get flat and you’ll have to throw them away.”
Study shows how the pandemic may have affected teens’ brains
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The pandemic’s effects on teenagers were profound — numerous studies have documented reports of issues with their mental health, social lives and more.
Now, a new study suggests those phenomena caused some adolescents’ brains to age much faster than they normally would — 4.2 years faster in girls and 1.4 years faster in boys on average, according to the study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
By being the first to contribute details on aging differences by sex, the study adds to the existing body of knowledge provided by two previous studies on the Covid-19 pandemic and accelerated brain aging among adolescents.
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“The findings are an important wake-up call about the fragility of the teenage brain,” said senior study author Dr. Patricia K. Kuhl, the Bezos Family Foundation Endowed Chair in Early Childhood Learning and codirector of the Institute for Learning and Brain Sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, via email. “Teens need our support now more than ever.”
Significant socioemotional development occurs during adolescence, along with substantial changes to brain structure and function. The thickness of the cerebral cortex naturally peaks during childhood, steadily decreases throughout adolescence and continues to decrease through one’s lifespan, the authors wrote.
The researchers originally intended to track ordinary adolescent brain development over time, starting with MRIs the authors conducted on participants’ brains in 2018. They planned to follow up with them for another scan in 2020.
The pandemic delayed the second MRI by three to four years — when the 130 participants based in Washington state were between ages 12 and 20. The authors excluded adolescents who had been diagnosed with a developmental or psychiatric disorder or who were taking psychotropic medications.
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Drought-hit Danube River reveals scuttled German World War II ships
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The wrecks of explosives-laden Nazi ships sunk in the Danube River during World War II have emerged near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo, after a drought in July and August that saw the river’s water level drop.
Four vessels dating from before 1950 have also come to light in Hungary’s Danube-Drava National Park near Mohacs, where the Danube’s water level stood at only 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) on Tuesday, the lingering effect of severe heat waves and persistent drought in July and August.
The vessels revealed in Prahovo were among hundreds scuttled along the Danube by Nazi Germany’s Black Sea fleet in 1944 as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces, destroying the ships themselves. The wrecks can hamper river traffic during low water levels.
Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still have turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others lie mostly submerged under sandbanks.
Endre Sztellik, a guard at the Danube-Drava national park, said of one of the ships, “we still don’t know what this is exactly. What is visible and an unfortunate fact is that the wreck is diminishing as people are interested in it and parts of it are going missing.”
The Danube stood at 1.17 meters (3.8 feet) in Budapest on Tuesday, which compares with an all-time record low of around 0.4 meters (1.3 feet) registered in October 2018. During floods, the Danube rises well above 6 meters (19.7 feet).
“Eastern Europe is experiencing critical drought conditions that are affecting crops and vegetation,” the European climate service Copernicus said on its website in its latest drought report, published earlier this month.
Remember when Lady Gaga ‘bled’ onstage during her shocking performance at the 2009 VMAs?
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Singing about the perils of fame, being dragged out from beneath a fallen chandelier then bleeding to death in front of a roomful of celebrities: Lady Gaga was not shy about making her debut at the MTV Video Music Awards.
The year was 2009 — many will remember it as the year rapper Ye (formerly Kanye West) stage-crashed 19-year-old Taylor Swift and suggested her award for Best Female Video should have gone to Beyonce instead. But never one to be overshadowed, Lady Gaga, then 23, made some pop culture history of her own that night.
Her rendition of “Paparazzi” — lamenting both unrequited love and the sinister effects of hounding tabloids — has gone down in the mists of Gaga legend; not least because a lack of high-quality footage means fans must resort to watching grainy screen-recorded versions circulated on social media.
Over the limited number of pixels, Gaga can be seen at the start of the performance in an all-white ensemble: a bejeweled, asymmetric lace bodysuit and matching cape, thigh-high boots, a feathered Keko Hainswheeler headpiece and strings of glinting pearls. As she staggered back from her piano at the song’s crescendo, however, an audible gasp swept the room as thick blood suddenly appeared to be pouring from her abdomen.
“I’m your biggest fan, I’ll follow you until you love me,” Gaga wailed desperately, her once-pristine outfit now daubed in scarlet. She ended the number suspended above the stage, ‘dead,’ as more blood dripped from her eyes.
“(It) gives me chills every time I watch it,” Olivia Rodrigo told MTV in 2021. “I think Lady Gaga is the best performer of our generation.” The “Drivers License” singer appeared to take notes. At this year’s Grammy Awards, she began to ‘bleed’ from clenched fists while performing her hit “vampire,” spreading fake blood across her arms and neck as the song progressed.
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Scientists who discovered mammals can breathe through their anuses receive Ig Nobel prize
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The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.
We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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The awards – which have no affiliation to the Nobel Prizes – aim to “celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative – and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology” by making “people laugh, then think.”
In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.
American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.
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The world’s best pizza for 2024 isn’t in Naples – or even in Italy. Here’s where it is …
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Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.
This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.
Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.
“It’s inspiring to be recognized for this 30 years into my career, especially in Naples where pizza originated,” Mangieri said in an email to CNN Travel on Thursday.
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Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.
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Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three – were represented on the list.
Scientists have solved the mystery of a 650-foot mega-tsunami that made the Earth vibrate for 9 days
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It started with a melting glacier that set off a huge landslide, which triggered a 650-foot high mega-tsunami in Greenland last September. Then came something inexplicable: a mysterious vibration that shook the planet for nine days.
Over the past year, dozens of scientists across the world have been trying to figure out what this signal was.
Now they have an answer, according to a new study in the journal Science, and it provides yet another warning that the Arctic is entering “uncharted waters” as humans push global temperatures ever upwards.
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Some seismologists thought their instruments were broken when they started picking up vibrations through the ground back in September, said Stephen Hicks, a study co-author and a seismologist at University College London.
It wasn’t the rich orchestra of high pitches and rumbles you might expect with an earthquake, but more of a monotonous hum, he told CNN. Earthquake signals tend to last for minutes; this one lasted for nine days.
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The world’s best pizza for 2024 isn’t in Naples – or even in Italy. Here’s where it is …
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Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.
This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.
Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.
“It’s inspiring to be recognized for this 30 years into my career, especially in Naples where pizza originated,” Mangieri said in an email to CNN Travel on Thursday.
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Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.
Italy still managed to dominate the overall list with 41 eateries while the United States got a total of 15 places recognized. And Naples managed to best New York with five entries on the list, including a tie for the No. 2 spot with Diego Vigtaliano Pizzeria.
Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three – were represented on the list.
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