2023年底前将累计加息4次?!美元或成为冒险货币黄金不再受宠

2021年04月06日 9229点热度 0人点赞 1,640条评论

2023年底前将累计加息4次?!美元或成为冒险货币黄金不再受宠

欧洲美元期货合约正消化美联储较预期更早加息的可能性,反映明年底前上调0.25%,到2023年底前累计加息4次,与此前美联储点阵图预测维持近零水平至2023年底大相径庭。

值得注意的是,美联储3月份的会议是在1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划通过之后、但在2.25万亿美元的基础设施计划之前举行的。

尽管代表利率预测的“点图”显示直到2024年才出现加息的信号,但18位官员中有7位预计会更早加息。

如果拜登的基础设施提议在未来几个月取得部分成果,未来可能会看到更多的政策制定者加入鹰派阵营中。

上周五美元上涨,此前公布的数据显示,3月美国经济创造的工作岗位为七个月来最多,这标志着强劲经济表现拉开帷幕,今年的经济增长可能创下近四十年最快纪录。

鉴于美国经济增长与其它发达国家之间的差异,预计今年第二季度美元将继续上行。根据CFTC最新的仓位数据,美元的空头仓位继续下降,这是另一个看涨信号。

今年迄今表现最差的10国集团货币,如欧元、日元和瑞郎,可能首当其冲。

过去几个月,美元随着股市攀升普遍上涨。投资者目前正在观察这种关系是否会持续下去,因为这可能显示出美元对风险偏好改善的反应会发生变化。

“对市场而言,目前最棘手的事是弄清楚美元对美国经济利好消息的敏感性,”富国银行驻纽约宏观策略师Erik Nelson表示。

“这是一个巨大的问题,因为如果我们正进入一个美元不再是避险货币,更多的是冒险货币的阶段,那是重大的机制性的改变,” Nelson称。

在疫情期间受到投资者青睐的资产——黄金在过去3个月大幅下跌。

今年第一季度,黄金价格下跌了10%以上,自2020年8月达到峰值以来,已经下跌了近20%。

在美国国债收益率强劲飙升、全球经济强劲复苏的希望出现后,金价下跌不会令人感到意外。然而,在一个分散化良好的投资组合中,黄金仍是一项关键资产。

毕竟,市场从未见过像过去12个月那样规模的刺激措施,而且通胀压力很有可能使实际利率长期处于负利率区间。

 

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  • WilliamNab

    Long-lost copy of the US Constitution, found in North Carolina filing cabinet, heads to auction
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    Historical document appraiser and collector Seth Kaller spreads a broad sheet of paper across a desk. It’s in good enough condition that he can handle it, carefully, with clean, bare hands. There are just a few creases and tiny discolorations, even though it’s just a few weeks shy of 237 years old and has spent who knows how long inside a filing cabinet in North Carolina.

    At the top of the first page are familiar words but in regular type instead of the sweeping Gothic script we’re used to seeing: “WE, the People …”

    And the people will get a chance to bid for this copy of the US Constitution — the only of its type thought to be in private hands — at a sale by Brunk Auctions on Sept. 28 in Asheville, North Carolina.
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    The minimum bid for the auction of $1 million has already been made. There is no minimum price that must be reached.

    This copy was printed after the Constitutional Convention finished drafting the proposed framework of the nation’s government in 1787 and sent it to the Congress of the ineffective first American government under the Articles of Confederation, requesting they send it to the states to be ratified by the people.

    It’s one of about 100 copies printed by the secretary of that Congress, Charles Thomson. Just eight are known to still exist and the other seven are publicly owned.

    2024年9月11日
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    Meet the artist transforming tennis balls into furniture
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    In the last two years, tennis has taken over our closets (court-appropriate garb can be found everywhere from Skims to Miu Miu), our screens (who could forget Zendaya’s turn as the tennis protoge-turned-elite-coach Tashi Duncan in “Challengers”) and now — our living rooms.

    At least that is the hope of Belgian eco-designer Mathilde Wittock, who fashions bespoke furniture from discarded tennis balls. Wittock’s sleek, modernist chaise longues are entirely cushionless — save for the padding of 500 precisely arranged tennis balls. Her one meter-long benches are similarly sparse, with some 270 balls being both stylish and structurally substantial.

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    “It takes around 24 different manufacturing steps to (make) a tennis ball, which is around five days. Then it has such a short lifespan,” Wittock told CNN in a video call from Brussels. “I was looking into tennis balls because I played tennis myself, so I know there is a lot of waste.”
    Around 300 million tennis balls are produced each year — and almost all of them end up in landfills, taking over 400 years to decompose. The US Open, which ended at the weekend, goes through around 70,000 each year, with Wimbledon not far behind at 55,000. Wittock estimates the lifecycle of a ball stands at just nine games, depending on the level of tennis being played. “Even if they are contained in their box, if the box has been opened the gas inside the tennis balls will be released over time,” she said. “(Eventually) they will get flat and you’ll have to throw them away.”

    2024年9月11日
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    Study shows how the pandemic may have affected teens’ brains
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    The pandemic’s effects on teenagers were profound — numerous studies have documented reports of issues with their mental health, social lives and more.

    Now, a new study suggests those phenomena caused some adolescents’ brains to age much faster than they normally would — 4.2 years faster in girls and 1.4 years faster in boys on average, according to the study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    By being the first to contribute details on aging differences by sex, the study adds to the existing body of knowledge provided by two previous studies on the Covid-19 pandemic and accelerated brain aging among adolescents.
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    “The findings are an important wake-up call about the fragility of the teenage brain,” said senior study author Dr. Patricia K. Kuhl, the Bezos Family Foundation Endowed Chair in Early Childhood Learning and codirector of the Institute for Learning and Brain Sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, via email. “Teens need our support now more than ever.”

    Significant socioemotional development occurs during adolescence, along with substantial changes to brain structure and function. The thickness of the cerebral cortex naturally peaks during childhood, steadily decreases throughout adolescence and continues to decrease through one’s lifespan, the authors wrote.

    The researchers originally intended to track ordinary adolescent brain development over time, starting with MRIs the authors conducted on participants’ brains in 2018. They planned to follow up with them for another scan in 2020.

    The pandemic delayed the second MRI by three to four years — when the 130 participants based in Washington state were between ages 12 and 20. The authors excluded adolescents who had been diagnosed with a developmental or psychiatric disorder or who were taking psychotropic medications.

    2024年9月11日
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  • BradleyAnces

    National Park calls out ‘world changing’ impact of dropped Cheetos bag
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    Plain water is the only thing visitors are allowed to consume inside the huge cavern at Carlsbad Caverns National Park in New Mexico. Cheetos are a no-go, and the recent park visitor who dropped a bag full of them created a “huge impact” on the cave’s ecosystem, the park said Friday in a Facebook post.

    “At the scale of human perspective, a spilled snack bag may seem trivial, but to the life of the cave it can be world changing,” the park said in its post about the garbage found off-trail in the Big Room.
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    “The processed corn, softened by the humidity of the cave, formed the perfect environment to host microbial life and fungi. Cave crickets, mites, spiders and flies soon organize into a temporary food web, dispersing the nutrients to the surrounding cave and formations. Molds spread higher up the nearby surfaces, fruit, die and stink. And the cycle continues.”

    The park said rangers spent 20 minutes carefully removing molds and foreign debris from surfaces inside the cave, noting that while some members of the ecosystem that rose from the snacks were cave-dwellers “many of the microbial life and molds are not.”
    The post called that particular impact on the cave “completely avoidable,” contrasting it with the hard-to-prevent fine trails of lint left by each visitor.

    “Great or small we all leave an impact wherever we go. Let us all leave the world a better place than we found it,” the post urged park goers.
    The park’s website says that eating and drinking anything other than plain water attracts animals into the cavern.

    Carlsbad Caverns followed up its post about the Cheetos bag with a post about the “leave no trace” principle of disposing of waste properly.

    “Contrary to popular belief, the cave is NOT a big trash can,” the post said, yet rangers pick up waste left behind every day.

    “Sometimes this can be a gum wrapper or a tissue, other times it can unfortunately mean human waste, spit, or chewing tobacco.” Visitors are asked to make sure they don’t leave trash in the cavern and to use designated restrooms.

    2024年9月11日
  • ThomasprOna

    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
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    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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  • Danielelomi

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    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

    2024年9月11日
  • DwayneEvise

    Summary
    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

    2024年9月11日
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    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

    2024年9月11日
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    Summary
    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

    2024年9月11日
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    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

    2024年9月11日
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