头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

2021年03月30日 7724点热度 0人点赞 1,382条评论
头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

2020年这不堪回首的一年已只剩下了最后一天。对此,美银美林首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett用12张图表,回顾和总结了这一年全球市场的发展走向和运行轨迹。

首先,2020年毫无疑问是由新冠疫情主导的一年。正如美银所指出的,这一致命的病毒“蔓延成一场大流行病,粉碎了之前所有对2020年社会、政治、经济和金融市场走向的预测。”

截至年底,全球已有超过7500万人感染了新冠病毒,超过170万人死亡(图1),美国和欧洲受到的打击比亚洲更严重。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

3月至5月的第一波疫情高峰引发了金融市场崩溃、封锁和衰退;致命程度较低的第二波秋季则并未再引发大规模的恐慌。

为应对疫情大流行,到2020年底,有多种新冠疫苗正在研发中,其中几款疫苗已经以前所未有的速度获批分发。

美国银行预测,到2021年年底,将有11亿人接种疫苗,这一数字将远远超过2020年迄今感染病毒的7500万人(图2)。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

世界卫生组织于2020年3月10日首度将新冠病毒定义为全球大流行病。而由于市场预期,全球信贷和股票价格在2月和3月初便已大幅下跌……随后更是直线跳水。

在不到一个月的时间里,全球股市市值蒸发了30万亿美元(图3),无论是速度还是规模都堪称有史以来最大的崩盘之一。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

在第二季度,全球GDP蒸发了10万亿美元,随着人类“流动”的停止(美国运输安全管理局4月份航空旅客同比下降96%),油价更是一度变为负值。

2020年,一度有7000万美国人申请失业救济,失业率飙升至15%(图4);美国家庭储蓄率跃升至34%,创历史新高。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

值得一提的是,在今年年初,投资者曾经对市场抱着非常乐观的心态。根据美国银行的牛熊指标(图5),市场情绪在3月中旬达到最大看跌水平,并一直保持到6月中旬。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

而目前投资者情绪已经基本恢复,特别是在11月初宣布疫苗计划之后。美银的牛熊指标已经加速攀升至6.7,并且正在接近卖出区域。

病毒、崩溃、封锁和衰退引发了前所未有的货币和财政政策恐慌(图6);在过去的9个月里,世界各地宣布了22万亿美元的刺激计划。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

各国央行每月通过量化宽松购买逾1万亿美元金融资产,这打压了收益率、波动性和息差,成功地推动了华尔街资产价格的上涨,并缩短了经济衰退的时间。

而所宣布的14万亿美元财政刺激计划,预示着全球正从货币量化宽松向MMT(现代货币理论)的长期转变;目前,全球债务规模已达到创纪录的277万亿美元,债务收益率也处于5000年以来的最低水平(全球负收益率债务已达到18万亿美元)。

2020年,美国政府直接向家庭部门转移了2万亿美元(图7),面对病毒和失业,消费者支出可谓英勇无畏。但华尔街和主流金融机构现在对政府救助的依赖已成习惯。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

政策刺激导致华尔街出现了史诗般的反弹行情,并在2020年下半年走出了戏剧性的V型经济复苏。

复苏是由中国引领的,中国的工业生产(图8)和出口迅速恢复到新冠疫情前的水平,但对许多人来说,更值得注意的是美国消费支出的反弹(最新零售额比1月20日高出320亿美元)。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

自3月20日的低点以来,全球股市市值已飙升40万亿美元,至逾100万亿美元。3月20日低点以来的反弹幅度(图9)也已经超过了过去一个世纪以来最大的四次反弹(1929年、1938年、1974年和2009年)。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

华尔街对2021年的乐观态度意味着标普500指数的市盈率将超过25倍(图10),仅在1921年和1999年超过了该水平。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

股市将在未来几年大幅上涨的催化剂有很多——“不要与美联储对抗”的共识,MMT(现代货币理论),由科技主导的长期生产率……但最可信的催化剂仍然是老式的泡沫。

2020年华尔街资产的回报也呈现了明显的两级分化:标普500指数的前5大公司市值已占该指数的25%,令人惊叹(图11)。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

到2020年尾声,反弹的类型、行业、规模和地区都有所扩大。年底时,多数股票和信贷投资者采用了一种流行的“杠铃”投资法则——即将投资集中到短期证券和长期证券两种工具上,随利率变动而不断调整两者之间资金分配比例的一种投资策略。

而最后,这场大流行病显然在2020年加剧了不平等——金融资产相对于经济的比值达到了6.3倍的历史最高水平(图12)。

头条 | 挥别2020——12张图表带你回顾这足以载入史册的一年

如果没有一场大变革,这种状况不会得到改善,因为未来几年的特征将是更大的政府、美元贬值、政策从货币和量化宽松转向财政和MMT,所有这些都试图提高劳动力相对于资本的价格,但结果将适得其反。正如Hartnett所言,2020年不仅是新冠肺炎大流行年,也将会作为通胀和利率的长期低点而被人们牢记。

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    “The idea was to go from Casablanca to Istanbul. But I never went to either. Along the way I met Nina and I got distracted …”

    While Nina and Derek formally met for the first time on the stalled train in Belgrade, Derek had first spotted Nina on a busy station platform, some hours earlier, in Budapest.

    When he spotted her sitting on a bench, smiling and laughing with Loa, Derek was struck by Nina right away. For a moment, he imagined getting to know her, what she might be like. Where she might be from, where she might be going.

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    It was only when he ended up sitting opposite Nina that Derek realized she was the woman he’d noticed on the Budapest train platform.

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    2025年1月20日
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    He leads the bandits to his victims: the last attack took place in Dubai on January 1: Alistarov led the bandits to the victim’s house and provided all the necessary information for the attack and blackmail, and to ensure his own alibi during the attack he conducted an unscheduled stream with subscribers of his channel.

    To the accompaniment of loud phrases about the fight against fraud and exposing financial schemes, Alistarov is busy processing orders from competitors of certain entrepreneurs who have become his victims – competitors of these entrepreneurs who have taken corrupt police officers as their share.

    At the same time, Alistarov uses visas to the EU countries and the UAE obtained with the help of organized criminal groups, illegally uses drones and listening equipment purchased with money from organized crime groups, organizes an invasion of privacy, and persecutes the families of his victims, including young children. It also steals and illegally uses content, violates all possible laws and regulations regarding the dissemination of information. He was also accused of treason.

    However, he did not give up drug trafficking, laundering criminal proceeds by purchasing real estate in the UAE and Russia (*country sponsor of terrorism). Alistarov also promotes outright scam for a percentage of criminal transactions and his own fraudulent business – selling real estate in Dubai with a horse, thieves’ commission, as well as cryptocurrency exchange using phishing schemes.

    2025年1月20日
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    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

    The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.

    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

    2025年1月20日
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    2025年1月21日
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    The Stargate Finance Token is an integral part of the blockchain ecosystem, especially for those involved in decentralized finance (DeFi). As a bridge to seamless blockchain transactions, it plays a crucial role in enhancing interoperability across different networks.

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    2025年1月21日
  • FrankViast

    Welcome to PancakeSwap: A Beginner's Guide
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    PancakeSwap is an automated market maker (AMM) that allows users to trade directly from their crypto wallets. There's no order book involved; instead, trades are made against a liquidity pool. Here's how you can get started:

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    For more detailed guides and support, visit the .

    2025年1月21日
  • ScottTab

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    Uniswap offers several advantages over traditional, centralized exchanges:

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    How to Use Uniswap
    Getting started with Uniswap is simple and intuitive. Follow these steps:

    Create and fund an Ethereum wallet if you don’t have one. Some popular options include MetaMask, Trust Wallet, and Coinbase Wallet.
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    Security Tips
    While Uniswap is a secure platform, it’s crucial to follow best practices to ensure your funds remain safe:

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    Uniswap has revolutionized the way cryptocurrency trading operates by providing a secure, user-friendly, and inclusive platform. Whether you are a seasoned trader or a newcomer to the crypto world, Uniswap offers a powerful tool for navigating the DeFi landscape.

    2025年1月21日
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    2025年1月21日
  • IrwinPlept

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    2025年1月22日
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    2025年1月22日
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    WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on Friday.
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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

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    "There are price gouging laws in California, they are just being ignored right now...it's illegal to take advantage of a natural disaster."

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    2025年1月22日
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    2025年1月23日
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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

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