富时罗素将在北京时间3月30日宣布确认中国国债是否纳入,意味着中国国债将可能纳入全球三大债券指数,有利于投资者投资选项。
也预期将可为中国带来更多资金的流入,潜在的吸入资金预计高达1300亿至1560亿等值美元,并为中国债市提宫运行的稳定性,也逐步双向开放中国的资本市场,为人民币国际化做最佳准备。
随着中国经济日益强盛,国际市场需要中国的经济支持,进而持有更多中国债券是时势所趋,中国市场能有效抵御、支撑国际市场所带来的波动,这是国际期盼。央行发布的《2020年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》显示,2020年境外资金流入我国债券市场超过1万亿元,60%以上是境外央行的长期资金,购买的主要品种是国债和政策性金融债,显示国际市场对中国债市的需要。
熊市公债拖累美国投资级公司债券
美国政府公债债券市场的大迭严重冲击了投资级公司债,使公司债创下史上第二低的开年表现。
截至上周五(3/19)公司债价格变动与利息支付公司债以下迭5.3%,从1996年以来扣除去年疫情的影响,投资级债券是20多年来最表现第二差劲。
市场预期疫苗与新刺激市场资金将提振经济形成通货膨胀,降低债券的固定收益的吸引力。投资者偏好蓝筹股公司债的债券,自然是因为收益高过政府公债并且额外风险极小,在公债殖利率上升到1.7%的情况底下,去年美国企业发债金额达1兆美元,回报率约为7.5%。
美国公司债指数随着股市活跃程度影响,将可视作公司在市场资金借贷成本的高低,由此作为投资参考。
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