黄金价格扭转短暂抛盘,跌破1720美元关口后,目前正恢复接近1740美元。早期下跌的驱动因素是技术面,而复苏的驱动因素则是美债收益率的下降。美债回软但美元获得里拉暴跌的支撑,相互抵消金价涨跌影响的请况下,地缘政治战再重返投资者眼前。欧盟、美国、英国和加拿大同日宣布制裁中国官员,推高风险情绪再利好金价复苏,将持续成为指导关键风险驱动的驾驶盘。
截至截稿前香港时间08时29分,黄金价格跌幅达到0.13%,至1737.10美元。美国10年期国债收益率涨幅达到0.12%,至1.684。
基本面分析:美国国债收益率回软美元获得里拉暴跌支撑
随着土耳其总统埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)解雇该国行长,促使里拉大幅暴跌,投资者纷纷将资金涌入美元避险,持续提供美元支撑,从而限制黄金的反弹势头。但美国国债收益率持续提供支撑,美国10年期国债收益率目前已经下跌至1.7%以下,而长期债券的跌幅甚至更大,其中美国30年期国债收益率下降至2.4%以下,持续给黄金带来复苏动能。在美元起涨美债走跌的相互抵消下,金价将更多著眼于地缘政治战的风险和后市重要经济数据的指导。
基本面分析:中美地缘政治战难消停多国跟随宣布制裁措施
中美会晤结束后,美国对华强硬措施仍然未能获得缓解,中国也坚持着其战狼外交的姿态。加拿大外交部发表声明称,加拿大将对4名中国官员和1家实体展开制裁,原因是他们在中国新疆地区侵犯维吾尔族穆斯林。加拿大全球事务部(GAC)在声明中称,这些制裁是与美国和英国协调实施的,也是与欧盟协调一致实施的。声明写道:“越来越多证据表明,中国当局在国家主导下系统性侵犯人权。”
美国财政部宣布对制裁的这两名官员分别为新疆生产建设兵团党委书记王君正和新疆公安厅厅长陈明国。英国政府公布一系列针对中国官员的“马格尼茨基式”资产冻结和旅行禁令,理由是这些官员对待中国西北部省份的维吾尔穆斯林的方式。这些制裁将适用于原新疆维吾尔自治区党委副书记兼政法委书记朱海仑、中国高级官员王明山、新疆生产建设兵团党委书记王君正和新疆公安厅厅长陈明国。
就在美国、加拿大、欧盟和英国都采取措施之前,前加拿大外交官迈克尔·科夫里格(Michael Kovrig)因涉嫌间谍罪,昨天(3月22日)在北京法院接受审判。加拿大全球事务部发表声明称,加拿大官员未获准参加审判,谴责中国程序缺乏透明度,使得该国政府感到担忧。
2021年3月19日,因案件涉及国家秘密,辽宁省丹东市中级人民法院依法对加拿大籍被告人迈克尔·斯帕沃尔(Michael Spavor)为境外刺探、非法提供国家秘密案不公开开庭进行了审理。经过一审判决,华盛顿邮报(Washington Post)指出,中国丹东市中级人民法院对斯帕沃尔依法择期宣判,这被视为外交人质的案件在一审没有判决结果的情况下结束。在此案中,西方官员广泛批评中国违反国际法,并且进行公然展示人质外交的行为。
面对着美国和其盟国所采取的制裁措施,中国外交部也宣布,将对10名欧盟个人和4家实体实施制裁报复,其中包括欧洲立法者和学者。
展望后市,黄金投资者将着眼于美国2月份耐用品订单和3月份初步Markit PMI,以及美联储主席鲍威尔的进一步证词。周末前,也需要持续关注2月份核心PCE通胀数据的发布。但黄金和白银在本周剩余时间里的主要驱动力,仍很可能抱持在债券市场,尽管美元的走势也值得关注。
技术面分析:
黄金价格继续在窄幅范围内盘整,价格已经测试10日移动平均线附近的支撑位1732美元,目前能看到目标阻力位于50天移动均线1793美元附近,在6月低点1670美元附近将看到更多支撑。随着快速随机指标继续加速走高,短期动能是积极的。快速随机指标的当前读数为79,略低于超买触发水平80,这可能预示着修正。随着移动平均趋同差异指数(MACD)产生交叉买入信号,中期动能已转为正数。
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