人民币早盘小跌，中间价创近两周新低
*隔夜美指上破92关口，最近一周净空仓规模骤降至去年6月中最低
*结汇需求仍强，人民币调整空间受限
*近期料在6.5附近宽幅震荡，除非美债收益率带动美指加速上行
路透北京3月22日-人民币兑美元即期CNY=CFXS周一早盘小跌，中间价则创近两周新低。交易员称，日内美指小幅回落并在92附近寻获支撑，人民币在下探近两周低位后收窄跌幅，但近半日有效波幅不足70点，预计近期仍在6.50元附近宽幅震荡。
他们并指出，目前市场对美指走强预期较浓，最近一周投机客持有的美元净空仓规模骤降至去年6月中以来最低；但因中国经济基本面较好，除非美债收益率带动美指加速上行，否则人民币很难出现剧烈调整。
“早盘人民币较为平稳，”一中资行交易员称，“虽然近期美指在涨，但毕竟中国基本面没有出现大的变化，出口不错，结汇需求较高，也限制了人民币的调整空间。 ”
该交易员并指出，只要国际收支中的经常项没有明显变差，人民币会有调整，但很难出现较强的贬值预期；近日中美高层战略对话针锋相对并未超出市场预判，对人民币影响较为有限。
美国里奇蒙联邦储备银行总裁巴尔金(Thomas Barkin)周日表示，美国经济可能“即将完成从新冠疫情导致的经济衰退中的复苏”；在近期的1.9万亿美元刺激法案的带动下，经济已恢复得差不多。
中国央行行长易纲周六称，中国有较大的货币政策调控空间；中国的货币政策处于正常区间，在提供流动性和合适的利率水平方面具有空间。
2月虽然经历春节长假，但中国国家外管局公布的当月银行代客远期结售汇签约净额增近三成至153亿美元，录得连续30个月净结汇，表明市场结汇意愿仍较高。
据路透计算及美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)周五公布的数据，最近一周投机客持有的美元净空仓规模骤降至去年6月中以来最低。
招商银行金融市场部首席外汇分析师李刘阳最新点评指出，中美高层战略对话虽然表明中美关系很难出现大的改善，但也意味着美国还没有做好跟中国全面摊牌的准备，中美关系今年趋于稳定甚至边际上好于2020年是完全有可能的。因此，今年中美关系很难对人民币汇率造成很大的负面影响。
他并指出，美元指数可能会继续上行，因欧洲疫情的反弹和不断攀升的美债收益率对欧元汇率的压制正在形成；新兴市场国家方面，继巴西和土耳其之后，俄罗斯央行也于上周加息，新兴国家汇率走强将部分抵消美元指数的反弹对人民币汇率的负面冲击。
北京时间11:37，人民币兑美元CNY=CFXS即期报6.5086元，上日收报6.5045元，夜盘终报6.5097元。今日人民币兑美元中间价CNY=PBOC报6.5191元，上日为6.5098元。人民币兑美元即期成交额CNYSPTVOL=CFXT为116.44亿美元，上日半日为152.01亿美元。
全球汇市方面，土耳其里拉兑美元周一大跌向纪录低位，此前土耳其总统埃尔多安(Tayyip Erdogan)罢免鹰派央行总裁，任命一个志同道合的高利率批评者担任新总裁，该决定令人震惊。
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