早在联准会(Fed) 开会之前,押注通膨升温会促使Fed 提早升息的债市交易员,就把10 年期美债殖利率推升到逾一年来最高水准。但Fed 并未被吓阻,决策官员坚持推行新政策架构,承诺延续宽松并允许通膨暂时升温,除非经济有实质进展才会紧缩,Fed 甚至未公布是否延续疫情期间较宽松的「补充杠杆率」(SLR),但债市并未因此陷入恐慌。
决策出炉后,10 年期美债殖利率从高点下滑,盘中升破1.68% 后回稳,美股也回升,市场原本担心的剧烈震荡并未出现。
彭博专栏作家Brian Chappatta 指出,虽然Fed 预测通膨将升温,但到2023 年底前都不会调升利率,拒绝迎合债市交易员因为削减恐慌(taper tantrum,或退场风暴) 涌现的恐慌。这股不安情绪是导致近来殖利率居高不下的因素。
Fed 周三保持利率和购债计画不变,且大幅上修经济成长、通膨预测,但利率点阵图中位数显示官员预期直到2023 年底前仍不会升息。
Fed 主席鲍尔在记者会中表示,目前政策合宜,最近的殖利率上扬并非市场失序现象,无需对殖利率波动回应。此外,未来几天再公布SLR 规定,该规定预定3 月底到期。
利率点阵图显示,Fed 决策官员对好几波财政刺激的效应并非全然无动于衷— 预测2023 年升息的人数从去年12 月的五人增加到七人。但鲍尔强调,大部分FOMC 成员都预期2023 年底前不会升息。此外,Fed 需要看到通膨「实质且持续超过2% 目标」,不会只因「预期将超过2%」就紧缩。
曾任Fed 经济学家的Cornerstone Macro 合伙人Roberto Perli 说:「Fed 在这场记者会不厌其烦一再传达同样的讯息:我们致力于新政策框架,和我们正在做的事。」
鲍尔说,决策委员希望看到实际数据,不会只凭预测行事,「我们的确预期,随着疫苗大规模接种和财政支持到位,就业和通膨会有更快速的复苏,但我们得先看到此事发生。」
ICAP 首席经济学家Lou Crandall 说,Fed 行为迥异于以往,他们愿意承受风险,认为这么做的成本小于无意间打压经济成长需付出的代价。
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