
周二(16 日) 交易,原油期货价格连续第三日收低,WTI 原油期货出现正价差,系因交易者押注,在上个月德州经历极寒气温后,美国原油供应量将连续第四周上升。
价格期货集团高阶市场分析师Phil Flynn 表示,石油价格下跌是因为「美国炼油厂还在从2 月中旬德州电力危机中努力挣扎恢复,因此市场预期原油库存再次增加,这点抑制了油价。」
EIA 上周公布,美国原油库存在3 月5 日止的当周增加1380 万桶,再更早一周库存甚至狂增2160 万桶。2 月19 日止的当周,原油库存也增加了130 万桶。
根据S&P Global Platts 调查,分析师平均预期上周(3/12 止) 原油库存温和增加40 万桶。
- 4月交割的WTI原油期货价格下跌59美分或0.9%,收每桶64.80美元。
5月交割的WTI原油期货价格收每桶64.86美元,且已3个交易日收高于最近月期货价格,亦即出现正价差现象,可能鼓励投资者囤油以待未来销售。
Oanda 高级市场分析师Edward Moya 报告指出,「WTI 出现看跌的正价差不令人意外,因为过去几周库存大量增加。」
- 5月交割的Brent原油期货价格下跌49美分或0.7%,收每桶68.39美元。
API周二稍晚公布,上周原油库存下降100万桶。汽油库存下降约93万桶,但蒸馏油库存增加约90.4万桶。公布后,WTI原油价格每桶下降0.46美元。
在汽油和其他石油产品库存大减的帮助下,原油价格摆脱了之前库存增加的影响。但是分析师认为,这样库存增加的规模、美元坚挺的基调、欧洲疫苗接踵推展的问题、对潜在变种新冠病毒可能在美国造成问题的不安,这些都足以让原油涨势冷却下来。(今年迄今WTI原油和Brent原油价格均涨逾30%)
「原油需求前景仍是油价上涨的关键,倘若因为病毒变异而让短期风险持续增加,原油价格可能会温和回落10%。」Moya 说。他周二也提到,一些欧洲国家决定停用AstraZeneca 的疫苗,应该会削弱短期原油需求前景。

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