欧元喜提一大利好连涨3日，但后市似乎不太乐观....
欧元连日上涨，欧元兑美元在过去三个交易日上涨了1.6%。如此喜人的涨势，除了因为美元疲态，还得益于欧盟执委会周三公布的一项计划。
北京时间5月27日傍晚，欧盟委员会通过7500亿欧元的抗疫复苏法案，并酝酿未来7年总值1.1万亿欧元的欧盟预算及抗疫复苏基金。
事实上，一直以来在外汇市场上，由于欧元是世界上第二大贸易货币，欧元的吸引力可能仅次于美元。
美元一向被视为世界储备货币，在贸易额中所占的份额是欧元的两到三倍。确实，美元是一种更通用的交易货币。然而，欧元也具有流动性，这得益于其“融资货币”的特征。融资货币通常是指低利率或负利率的货币，极具流动性，易于出售，因此人们通常会借入欧元来购买风险资产。
当然，凡事具有两面，作为融资货币的欧元也容易带来风险——例如，如果欧元上涨，用于套利的外国交易员可能会因借贷成本飙升而损失惨重。
不过，今年以来，一场席卷全球的宽松潮改变了这一趋势。
首先，今年全球利率大幅下降，包括美联储、加拿大央行和英国央行等主要央行都处于或接近于零利率。
欧洲央行的基准利率仍为-0.50%，而与此同时美联储的利率区间也下调至0.00-0.25%。因此，尽管目前美元仍具有正利差，但微弱的优势使得套利行为变得不那么吸引了。
有分析指出，在大幅度降息之后，美联储等头部央行今年将不会加息，因此欧元作为融资货币的吸引力将会进一步下降。
复苏经济是维持宽松措施的原因之一，SeekingAlpha分析师还指出了另一个有悖于常识的原因：这些央行进一步降息反而打击该国股市，因为股市溢价可能会随着国债收益率的降低而下降。
如下图所示，在2019年8月，美国10年期国债收益率约为1.75%。如今，因为债券市场预期未来长期利率会降低，美债10年期收益率已经下跌至0.75%左右。
这两个收益率水平对股市意味着什么？
按照股权风险溢价公式，若国债收益率大幅走低，假设风险溢价不变，意味着企业将支付更多股息。
（注：股权风险溢价(ERP)，就是投资人可从股息收益及获利驱动的股价预测中所获得的回报，比无风险债券收益率高出的部分。）
根据外媒汇编的数据，由于收益率暴跌，目前标准普尔500指数中派息高于当前10年期美国国债的公司有388家。相比之下，今年年初有241家公司上市。
另外，在低利率环境下，企业折现后的长期盈利也可能走低。
出于种种考虑，美联储短期内加息的可能性不大，因为这可能导致股市和其他资产再次螺旋式下跌。其他央行也是一样的道理。
这意味着，全球利率可能至少在2020年剩余时间内保持宽松。因此，尽管短期看，欧元兑美元的利差可能仍然很紧张；但从套利交易的角度来看，欧元的套利价值已经大打折扣。
另外一个关注点是欧洲政局稳定的问题。
目前看来欧元兑美元未来的波动性有变小的迹象，这避免了欧元兑美元跌向平价，但是欧盟财政问题、英欧谈判的消息随时会打乱汇市的平静。
此前因债市对意大利财政危机产生忧虑，意大利和德国政府债券之间的利差不断走低，这使得欧元走低。此外，英国脱欧不确定性也会带来风险。因此，欧元未来还是面临很大的下行风险。
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