高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席执行官大卫-所罗门(David Solomon)表示,尽管“毫无疑问”美国对新冠病毒大流行的最初反应迟缓,但目前正在取得进展,未来几周内将出现摆脱危机的“道路”。
所罗门在周四表示:
“毫无疑问,我们反应晚了,(对疫情状况)适应迟缓。”
然而,所罗门称,他现在确实看到了政府和私人企业对疫情的大量关注。鉴于我们拥有的资源,才智和创造力,他对未来几周内抗疫取得进步并规划前进道路非常乐观。
随着冠状病毒死亡人数的增加,媒体报道纷纷表示,美国政府浪费了数周时间来加强检测和准备医疗用品。随着各大城市和整个经济领域活动停滞不前,美国开始面临不堪重负的医疗部门和不断上升的死亡人数。美国总统特朗普表示,该数字可能达到24万。
所罗门表示,随着检测和其他措施的增加,最终将使决策者掌握病毒的发展轨迹,这样可以为我们提供开始慢慢开放部分经济活动的机会。
所罗门还表示,由于银行股面临压力,他预计高盛将仍然继续派发股息。美国各大银行上个月宣布冻结股票回购计划,一些投资者质疑银行是否也必须停止分红。
他还表示,高盛不会在这场危机中解雇雇员,并宣布了3亿美元的援助计划,以帮助小型企业和受灾严重的社区。
与此同时,高盛策略师还发出警告,标普500指数成份股盈利或锐减57%。
高盛策略师对今年企业盈利前景的预测本来就在最悲观之列,现在他们警告说下降幅度可能比先前预期还要严重。
Ryan Hammond等策略师在报告中称,如果新冠疫情带来的经济影响大于预期,则标普500指数成分股2020年每股盈余可能萎缩57%至70美元,这样的预期是基于对企业复工慢于预期,高失业率挥之不去,消费者支出停滞的情景假设。
高盛策略师称这不是他们的基本情形假设,但是,因为不断公布令人失望的经济数据,且新冠病毒造成的死亡人数持续上升,不应排除这种可能性。截至3月 28日当周,美国初请失业金人数飙升至665万,比前一周的纪录高位增加了一倍。
策略师称,尽管在这种情况下盈利仍将在2021年反弹,但标普500指数每股盈余仍将比新冠疫情爆发前的峰值低30%,2019年峰值为165美元。
首席股票策略师David Kostin上月称,基于高盛的基本情形假设,标普500指数成份股盈利将缩水33%至110美元。这已经是彭博汇总的19位策略师中最悲观的预测,他们对今年标普成分股每股盈余的平均预期为149美元。
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